It’s the final week of the season in the Majors. Minnesota has clinched their spot in the playoffs, but there is still much to play for– as they could rise up and catch the Chicago White Sox and win the American League Central, or they could fall behind Cleveland in terms of their Wild Card seeding. For Detroit, however, there is no such drama. Though they surprised early and have been a nice little surprise for not being terrible, they are playing out the string at this point.
Minnesota Twins Notes
- The Twins have massive home road splits – they are 21-5 at home but just 12-17 on ther road heading into Tuesday action.
- Minnesota has dealt with significant injuries all season long but with the return of C Mitch Garver they are as complete as they have been all season.
- DH Nelson Cruz continues to defy time. He leads the team in homers and is a serious MVP candidate.
Minnesota Twins Injuries
- DH Nelson Cruz – Questionable – They have been resting him where they can.
- SP Homer Bailey – Out – Limits their starting pitching depth.
- SP Jake Odorizzi – Out – See above, though he has been a contributor in the past.
Detroit Tigers Notes
- The Tigers hung in there quite well early on but at some point the lack of talent on their roster shone through.
- Even in a shortened season it is hard to overcome bad pitching. The Tigers team ERA is 5.71, 29th in the league.
- OF Victor Reyes looks like an emerging player they can build around for the future.
Detroit Tigers Injuries
- 2B Jonathan Schoop – Out – Had been a very productive free agent pick up.
- OF Jacoby Jones – Out – Was their best hitter this season before going out two weeks ago.
- 1B CJ Cron – Out – Was providing some power before going down in August.
Minnesota Twins vs Detroit Tigers Betting Analysis
Kenta Maeda vs. Casey Mize
Money Line: Twins -310, Tigers +260 (Odds provided by FanDuel)
Kenta Maeda has been the Twins best pitcher this season, his first in the Majors outside of L.A. His overall numbers are strong, 5-1 record and a 2.52 ERA, and most importantly the team is 7-3 in his starts. Detroit was the only team to beat him so far this season, a game in which he gave up just three runs over 6 innings but didn’t get much support. His other game against Detroit was a win but he got a no decision. All in all Detroit hit him as well as any team did this season, but I am not sure that is a reason to back them here. For Detroit, Casey Mize is their top prospect. Like many rookie pitchers he is taking his lumps though. He is not pitching deep into games and his ERA is a terrible 6.08. Oddly the two starts of his that Detroit won were against Minnesota. He did not pitch especially well in either so I see no correlation there. Detroit’s lineup is bad while Minnesota is finally at full strength. That, plus the advantage on the mound makes Minnesota the easy play.
Take Minnesota -310.
Total: 8.5
Only three of Maeda’s ten starts have gone over the total this season. A chunk of that you can contribute to his solid form and some to the fact that Minnesota was not the offensive team they were a year ago. He has pitched to six straight unders and is definitely the one bringing down this total, which I thought would be at least 9. Though fading a streak can be profitable I think we should lean into it here. I exect Maeda to be in control while the Twins will get to Mize for sure.
Score Prediction: Minnesota 6 – Detroit 1
Take Under 8.