Here is our Major League Baseball Daily Fantasy Sports Lineup Tips for August 3rd, 2018:
Pitchers
Both of the most expensive pitchers are just too expensive tonight. Verlander and DeGrom also get subpar matchups. The Braves offense is pretty solid and they do not strike out as much as you’d like for such a high price tag. The Dodgers have been heating up recently and Verlander hasn’t been quite the same as of late, even with a dominant performance two starts ago. At this price tag, I need to see a good matchup and an elite pitcher, and that’s not what I get here. You can play these two in any format if you insist, but you really don’t need to.
I am mainly playing on DraftKings tonight, and Luis Severino will be in every single lineup I create. I HOPE the ownership stays lower than it should be. To be honest, he should be like 50% owned at this price tag in my opinion. Severino has struggled in his last 4 starts, but I’ve never seen stats this unlucky for an elite pitcher in a 4-game stretch. Here are some stats that kind of provide perspective for Severino’s struggles. I will put the expected stat in parenthesis. In the last 4 games, he has allowed a BABIP of over .430 (.300-.330), HR/FB rate of 29% (11%), an ERA of 8.84 (xFIP of 4), and a LOB rate at 63% (75%). Even more drastically, in his last 2 games, Severino has posted an ERA over 11 and an xFIP under 3, a LOB% under 50%, and a K/BB over 12. The matchup sucks but in his last 2 meetings with the Red Sox, Severino has averaged 28 DK points. I’ll gladly take an elite pitcher at $9.2K.
The mid-tier is littered with viable options, so I will try to rank the players that I like between $8.5K and $6K point per dollar with a blurb about why they’re at where they’re at.
Ryan Borucki: Funky delivery who has been rather effective this season since coming up. Receives big park upgrade.
Chris Archer: Elite stuff gets a great park vs. a right-handed heavy lineup. Clear 30 point upside.
Jake Odorizzi: Good matchup vs. Royals. Recently posted great outing vs. KC. Has real upside at a lower price.
Vince Velasquez: Elite K stuff. Generally possesses blow up risk, but Marlins reduce risk. High upside.
German Marquez: Been borderline elite outside of Coors this season. xFIP of 3.40, WHIP under 1.1, and K/9 over 9.
The bottom-tier sucks tonight and I really don’t want much to do with any of them. There is ONE guy I may talk myself into and it’s truly not for the weak. Lucas Giolito has been better? Listen, Giolito is a top prospect that has shown a lack of control. He gets a decent offense in a park upgrade. Giolito has the ability to produce 25 fantasy points and I may take the flier on him just for that upside. No one else down here has that ability on an even semi-regular basis, so punting with Giolito could pay dividends just because you will definitely be ahead of the field if he does flash upside.
Stacks
The Orioles and Rangers game looks to be the chalk of the night once again. David Hess is set to take the mound for a terrible Orioles pitching staff and the Rangers performance last night will surely not take anyone off of them tonight. Hess isn’t really a good pitcher in any sense and doesn’t even project well long term, so I can’t really justify a fade beside the given variance of baseball.
Ariel Jurado, on the other hand, is supposed to be one of the next big things to put on a Rangers uniform. I’m not quite sure how ready he is to pitch at this level. Ariel completely skipped AAA ball and posted a K/9 around 5 (YIKES) in over 100 innings pitched at the AA level. Personally, that is terrifying to me. Since coming up, he has struck out just 4 batters in 10.2 innings as well, so he’s not good enough to be here yet. No pitcher can survive that many balls in play on a consistent basis and be really really good. I like the Orioles if they aren’t one of the most popular spots on the slate.
The Twins face Heath Fillmyer in Minnesota, which is a bump down for Fillmyer. He hasn’t been horrible this season, but he isn’t that talented of a major league arm and that can get you hurt really quickly. I think Twins mini-stacks are great in GPP’s.
Both Detroit and Oakland find themselves in very favorable matchups against each other tonight. Brett Anderson is just horrible and even a terrible Tigers’ offense should be able to smack him around. I can’t really bring myself to just load up on Tigers because I barely know who that would be at this point, but I do really like guys like Goodrum and Castellanos. Oakland’s offense is probably the better side of this matchup even though I think Hardy may be the better pitcher. Hardy isn’t HORRIBLE, but he’s definitely not good. The Athletics’ offense has smashed left-handed pitching this season and this is a great spot to do it in. Oakland is a boom or bust team that often relies on a combination of strikeouts and home runs. Hardy’s K/9 this year is 6.5, so I think the A’s may hit the ball more often than they typically do.
Secondary Stacks: Yankees, Nationals, Indians, and Pirates