Football won’t be the only sport in action on Thanksgiving. Closing weekend at Churchill will include the Grade 2 Falls City Stakes on Thursday.
Falls City Card Analysis
Churchill Downs Race 1
Post: 11:30 AM ET; Purse: $32,000 Claiming, 1 1/16 Miles on Dirt; Entries: 8
#4 HEIRLOOM KITTEN (9-5) has a great shot in the race given the advantages in speed & class. #5 SHELL FIRE (15-1) is interesting this price holds. 15-1 is a massive overlay. #8 MARKITOFF (6-1) is worth a look here given the connections & pace numbers. #3 TEZ (6-1) is another in with a shot at a decent price.
Selections: 4-5-8-3
Churchill Downs Race 2
Post: 11:58 AM ET; Purse: $68,000 Claiming, 6 1/2 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 6
For a short field this race is pretty wide open. #6 ALL THE DIAMONDS (5-2) has a great shot in the race given the advantages in form & class. #2 OUTLIER (2-1) has to be respected based on the connections. #1 PALATIAL TIMES (5-2) merits consideration in this spot given edges in speed & pace numbers. #4 HOOPERDRIVESTHBOAT (9-2) should be competitive based on the overall power rating which has it tops in the group.
Selections: 6-2-1-4
Churchill Downs Race 3
Post: 12:26 PM ET; Purse: $50,000 Claiming, 1 Mile on Dirt; Entries: 8
#3 A. K. SAFARI (8-1) is a major player in today’s race edging the field in several key handicapping factors including speed & connections. I really like this one to pull the upset here. #2 NIP N TUCK (4-1) could get a perfect pace scenario today. #8 GENERATOR (3-1) looks to have to have kept the best company in the previous starts. #5 ONE LAST HAND (7-2) is proven as a good bet to at least hit the board under today’s distance and surface conditions.
Selections: 3-2-8-5
Churchill Downs Race 4
Post: 12:55 PM ET; Purse: $72,000 Starter Allowance, 6 1/2 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 6
#3 FRONT STREET (7-5) has a great shot in the race given the advantages in speed & record at the distance. #1 SUPER WONDER GIRL (9-2) has a great shot in the race given the advantage in class and competitive speed figures. #2 DUPLICITOUS (7-2) is not without a shot and may get overlooked with the heavy favorite in this spot. #6 BITTER VIXEN (6-1) is a longshot that should be given a second look if the price remains around the morning line.
Selections: 3-1-2-6
Churchill Downs Race 5
Post: 1:24 PM ET; Purse: $68,000 Claiming, 6 1/2 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 8
#1 AIRBORNE GAL (7-2) is worth a look here given edges in class & record at the distance. #6 MY MY MUNNY (10-1) should be competitive based on the overall power rating which has it tops in the group. The price makes this one extra appetizing. #8 SHASTALOO (5-1) is a major player based on speed figures. #7 ASSERTIVE STYLE (4-1) is a major player in today’s race edging the field in several key handicapping factors including pace figures.
Selections: 1-6-8-7
Churchill Downs Race 6
Post: 1:54 PM ET; Purse: $141,000 Allowance Optional Claiming, 7 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 6
#6 REGAL RETORT (2-1) is worth a look here given edges in class & power rating. #1 GRAND CRU CLASSE (9-5) is in with a great chance based on the horse’s advantages in stamina & race flow. #4 NEW ROO (4-1) merits consideration in this spot given edges in speed & form. #3 TIPSY GAL (4-1) should be in the right spot early to give this horse a chance to get the job done.
Selections: 6-1-4-3
Churchill Downs Race 7
Post: 2:24 PM ET; Purse: $127,000 Allowance, 1 1/4 Miles on Dirt; Entries: 7
#6 LONGPANTS REQUIRED (2-1) should be competitive today based on the horse’s advantages in speed & power rating. #5 HIGH FASHION (5-2) will likely have the stamina to outlast these in the final jumps of the race. #7 FAMILY TIME (5-1) is worth a look here given edges in class & form. #4 BIG CITY MOMMA (5-1) could get a perfect pace scenario today.
Selections: 6-5-7-4
Churchill Downs Race 8
Post: 2:54 PM ET; Purse: $56,000 Claiming, 1 Mile on Dirt; Entries: 10
This is one of a few races on the card that look ripe for an upset. #5 ANN IN THE MIDDLE (6-1) is proven as a good bet to at least hit the board under today’s distance and surface conditions. #3 EDGEE ANGEL (5-1) merits consideration in this spot given edges in speed & record at the distance. #10 NIC AND ZOE (9-2) is worth a look here given edges in form & power rating. #1 BREONNA (9-2) is in with a great chance based on the horse’s connections & the strong pace numbers.
Selections: 5-3-10-1
Churchill Downs Race 9
Post: 3:24 PM ET; Purse: $120,000 Maiden Special Weight, 6 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 14
#6 ALL IN SYNC (5-2) is a major player in today’s race edging the field in several key handicapping factors including speed & form. #2 COFFEE WITH ALEX (3-1) is worth a look here given edges in race flow & pace numbers. #4 GILDED RULER (6-1) is interesting if the morning line holds. #14 CALL ME JAMAL (7-2) will likely have the stamina to outlast these in the final jumps of the race.
Selections: 6-2-4-14
Churchill Downs Race 10
Post: 3:53 PM ET; Purse: $134,000 Allowance Optional Claiming, 1 1/16 Miles on Dirt; Entries: 11
#8 KINETIC SKY (7-2) has a great shot in the race given the advantages in speed & stamina. #6 COMMANDEER (8-1) looks like a player and is at an overlaid price. #9 LAUGHING BOY (5-1) could play a major role in the running of the race. #3 FLAMINGO HAWK (5-1) merits consideration in this spot given edges in speed & power rating.
Selections: 8-6-9-3
Churchill Downs Race 11
Post: 4:22 PM ET; Purse: $500,000 Falls City S., 1 1/8 Miles on Dirt; Entries: 7
#6 BONNY SOUTH (9-5) is a major player in today’s race edging the field in several key handicapping factors including speed & power rating. #5 ARMY WIFE (5-2) merits consideration in this spot given edge in stamina and speed figures. #4 ENVOUTANTE (7-2) is talented and may get overlooked. #1 CRYSTAL BALL (7-2) is in top form and could be sitting on a massive race.
Selections: 6-5-4-1 (Best Bet #6)
Churchill Downs Race 12
Post: 4:50 PM ET; Purse: $52,000 Starter Allowance, 1 Mile on Dirt; Entries: 9
#3 EXULTING (5-2) is a major player in today’s race edging the field in several key handicapping factors including speed & power rating. #8 SKYSCANNER (15-1) is worth a look here given edges in class & record at the distance. This one may be the key to getting some value out of this race in the verticals. #9 THIRSTY BETRAYAL (3-1) is in with a great chance based on the horse’s advantages in connections & pace numbers. #5 GAMBLER’S FALLACY (8-1) merits consideration in this spot given the stamina this horse has which could allow him to wear down the field late.
Selections: 3-8-9-5
Fair Grounds
Churchill Downs won’t be the only CDI track running on Thursday as the Fair Grounds which is owned by Churchill Downs Incorporated will have its opening day on Thursday. For selections for both CDI tracks and others across the country check out the Betting News free handicapping tools.
