Aqueduct Thursday December 30: Bay Ridge Stakes Analysis

Sharp Starr is one of 3 horses inside of 2-1 for the Bay Ridge from Aqueduct

Aqueduct will return with from the holiday break on Thursday with 4 days of racing. The weekend will feature 4 stakes races including Thursday’s Bay Ridge.

Weekend of Stakes Races

Bay Ridge Stakes

The Bay Ridge is just 1 of 4 stakes races from The Big A this weekend. The Bay Ridge on Thursday will feature a $100,000 purse for 3 year old and up fillies and mare. As with all stakes races during the remainder of the meet, it will be contested over dirt. The race will be run over a route of ground with horses covering 9 furlongs.

Alex M. Robb Stakes

Friday’s card will feature the male counterpart to the Bay Ridge. The race is known as the Alex M. Robb Stakes and will be 9 furlongs on the main dirt track. Although sex is not specified, the identical conditions of Thursday’s race mean that this race will be contested by colts and geldings. The purse is also $100,000.

The Jerome Stakes

Saturday Aqueduct will run one of its road to the Kentucky Derby races. The Jerome is exclusive to three year old horses and does carry Derby points to the top 4 finishers. All thoroughbreds born in 2019 will be considered 3 year olds on January 1st for racing purposes.

The $150,000 stakes race run at 8 furlongs will be one of 3 races on the day worth Derby points. The others are the Smarty Jones from Oaklawn Park and the Sham from Santa Anita. Betting News will cover the Sham in more detail on Friday.

La Verdad Stakes

On Sunday the New York Racing Association (NYRA) will run the La Verdad Stakes. This race is for fillies and mares 4 years old and up. The 7 furlong race carries a purse of $100,000 and requires all entrants to be New York breds.

Thursday Analysis

Aqueduct Race Course Race 1

Post: 12:50 PM ET; Purse: $43,000 Maiden Claiming, 6 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 6

#4 BREW PUB (8-5) looks faster than these on paper and is a deserving favorite. That being said, the horse has yet to break the maiden and at this level that can be hard to trust. #6 D’VINICRIS (9-2) is another who should be in with a reasonable shot in today’s race. #3 DAMILANO (2-1) is proven as a good bet to at least hit the board under today’s distance and surface conditions. #2 BIG LITTLE RISK (8-1) has the foundation of experience and in these races, chaos is not uncommon. This one is a possible upsetter.

Selections: 4-6-3-2

Aqueduct Race Course Race 2

Post: 1:19 PM ET; Purse: $80,000 Maiden Special Weight, 7 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 6

#5 DIAMOND COLLECTOR (4-5) may still be a maiden, but the speed figures don’t lie and this one clearly has some ability. It looks like it will take a lot to get by this one. #1 EXXALTRESS (7-2) has breeding to suggest she found the right group here, but it looks like she ran into a buzz saw and may be forced to fight for the minors. #2 ROSEBUG (5-2) is also well bred and has run against a number of good horses. #3 MARTINI’S AMICA (20-1) could get a perfect pace scenario today. This one will probably lack the talent to win, but could be dangerous in some underneath spots.

Selections: 5-1-2-3

Aqueduct Race Course Race 3

Post: 1:44 PM ET; Purse: $72,000 Allowance, 1 Mile on Dirt; Entries: 6

#3 QUICKFLASH (3-1) is a major player in today’s race edging the field in several key handicapping factors including speed & power rating. #2 RUN FOR BOSTON (4-1) looks just a cut below the favorite, but should still be in the mix. #4 TOP OF THE MINT (7-2) could get a perfect pace scenario today. #1 ANYTHING PAZIBLE (8-1) has the best in the money percentage at the distance and could play a part in the exotics.

Selections: 3-2-4-1

Aqueduct Race Course Race 4

Post: 2:11 PM ET; Purse: $37,000 Claiming, 6 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 7

#3 ALFIE SOLOMONS (2-1) is in with a great chance based on the connections and the the overall power rating. #2 HOOPLA (3-1) is worth a look here given edges in record at the distance & pace numbers. #4 OBSESSED (15-1) merits consideration in this spot given the speed figures. #1 DEE BO (4-1) should be competitive, but just doesn’t appear to offer much value here.

Selections: 3-2-4-1

Aqueduct Race Course Race 5

Post: 2:38 PM ET; Purse: $80,000 Maiden Special Weight, 6 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 7

#4 URBAN FOREST (5-2) looks tough to beat here given the edge in a number of key categories including speed & class. #2 INEVTABL CONECTION (3-1) might get the right setup to be dangerous here today. #6 RHUMJAR (6-1) will likely have the stamina to outlast these in the final jumps of the race. #1 KOBE’S LEGACY (8-1) has to be respected based on the connections.

Selections: 4-2-6-1 (Best Bet: #4 Urban Forest)

Aqueduct Race Course Race 6

Post: 3:08 PM ET; Purse: $36,000 Claiming, 1 Mile on Dirt; Entries: 8

#3 AIR SHOW (6-1) has been running against tougher and maybe this is a spot where he can pull the upset. #2 NOBLE JOURNEY (5-1) has speed figures that are better than this group and should get a great race setup today. #5 ROCCO STRONG (9-2) has great early pace and should be able to carry that the distance. #7 CORKMAN (7-2) has the top overall power rating in the group but might be a bit short on the tote board.

Selections: 3-2-5-7

Aqueduct Race Course Race 7

Post: 3:36 PM ET; Purse: $100,000 Bay Ridge S., 1 1/8 Miles on Dirt; Entries: 5

Sharp Starr is the morning line 2nd choice in the Bay Ridge Stakes from Aqueduct

#3 SHARP STARR (9-5) has a great shot in the race given the advantages in speed & class. #2 MAIDEN BEAUTY (2-1) will be forward early and could get the best of the pace scenario. #5 ICE PRINCESS (8-5) is favored, but doesn’t measure up with the others on figures. This one makes sense in the winner’s circle, but I’ll play against. #1 BYHUBBYHELLOMONEY (6-1) goes out for top Aqueduct connections.

Selections: 3-2-5-1

Aqueduct Race Course Race 8

Post: 4:04 PM ET; Purse: $32,000 Maiden Claiming, 1 Mile on Dirt; Entries: 9

#4 MY BOY COLTON (7-2) could pull a minor upset here. The horse has been running well against better and should appreciate this field. #9 TOTAL EFFORT (3-5) is competitive on paper, but doesn’t tower over this field the way the odds suggest he should. I will play against and hope to gain instant return on investment. #3 ESOR (8-1) should be competitive today based on the horse’s advantages in speed & pace numbers. #5 OCEAN DEEP (15-1) has to be respected based on the connections.

Selections: 4-9-3-5

Betting News Free Handicapping Tools

This weekend is packed full of races from across some of the premiere venues in American horse racing. Aqueduct, Santa Anita, Oaklawn Park, Fair Grounds, and Gulfstream will be among the many tracks running at various points throughout the weekend.

Betting News free handicapping tools can help you solidify your selections for all of the weekend’s races. With sophisticated machine learning, Betting News can help give you an edge on the other players in the pari-mutuel market.

By Chris Adams

Chris first got introduced to horse racing in 2009 at Canterbury Park (Shakopee, MN). Along with handicapping and betting, Chris has worked as a teller at his local track and participated in ownership partnerships. He now enjoys sharing his passion with his wife and two young daughters who love going out to the track each and every summer.