Fair Grounds Tuesday: Mardi Gras Stakes Analysis, Selections

Fair Grounds Tuesday: Mardi Gras Stakes Analysis, Selections

Fair Grounds will run a rare Tuesday card on March 1st. The marquee race will be the Mardi Gras stakes and will go off as race 8 on the turf.

Mardi Gras Stakes

The Fair Grounds Race 8

Post: 4:36 PM CT; Purse: $75,000 Mardi Gras S., About 5 1/2 Furlongs on Turf; Entries: 8

Change of Control is one of the top 2 morning line choices from the Fair Grounds on Tuesday
Change of Control wins the Autumn Days at Aqueduct in a driving range.
  • #5 CHANGE OF CONTROL (2-1) is a major player in today's race edging the field in several key handicapping factors including speed & power rating.
  • #4 ELLE Z (9-5) looks like a strong prospect. This one will be forward and has had success at this distance in the past.
  • #2 SAIL ON ELLEN (12-1) is proven as a good bet to at least hit the board under today's distance and surface conditions.
  • #8 GOIN' GOOD (6-1) is a fringe player here and wouldn’t be a total shock if this one finds a way to get to the winner’s circle.

Selections: 5-4-2-8

Tuesday Undercard Analysis

The Fair Grounds Race 1

Post: 1:05 PM CT; Purse: $19,000 Claiming, 6 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 8

  • #1 SUNDAY SCHEMING (7-2) has a great shot in the race given the top connections & recent foes.
  • #6 LOVE AND LEMONS (3-1) is worth a look here given the record at the distance and could get a dream setup in this spot.
  • #8 WINNING QUALITY (9-2) has been doing everything right in recent starts. This one is logical here.
  • #4 BELMAR BEAUTY (4-1) has the top speed and power ratings in the group and could be extremely dangerous in this spot.

Selections: 1-6-8-4

The Fair Grounds Race 2

Post: 1:35 PM CT; Purse: $20,000 Claiming, 7 1/2 Furlongs on Turf; Entries: 9

  • #1 EVERLOVINGHAND (3-1) should be competitive today based on the horse's speed & power rating.
  • #1A BATTLE OF WILL (3-1) should be in the right spot early to give this horse a chance to get the job done. The fact that this one is part of a coupled entry should help. These two together seem like a real formidable force.
  • #5 RANCH BADGE (6-1) will likely have the stamina to outlast these in the final jumps of the race.
  • #7 HENNING (6-1) comes into the race signaling a big performance in the near future.

Selections: 1-1A-5-7

The Fair Grounds Race 3

Post: 2:05 PM CT; Purse: $19,000 Claiming, 5 1/2 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 10

  • #5 MADAME JANE (3-1) has a great shot in the race given the speed figures. It doesn’t hurt that this one will be on the engine early.
  • #3 MRS. JUDY (8-1) has to be respected based on the connections.
  • #7 STEPH'S SPIRIT (9-2) is worth a look here given edges in class & power rating.
  • #2 TENSAS VIRGINIA (9-2) will look to get a dream trip in this spot. If that happens, this one is a bit of a distance specialist.

Selections: 5-3-7-2

The Fair Grounds Race 4

Post: 2:35 PM CT; Purse: $25,000 Claiming, 5 1/2 Furlongs on Turf; Entries: 9

  • #4 DENVER CITY (8-5) looks tough to beat here given the edge in a number of key categories including speed & pace numbers.
  • #1 JACK THE UMPIRE (5-1) matches up well in this spot on speed and class and could be a player if the favorite doesn’t fire.
  • #6 MAY HOUR (8-1) has to be respected based on the connections.
  • #7 IN SKY WE TRUST (6-1) has a solid power rating that gives this one a chip, a chair, and a chance.

Selections: 4-1-6-7

The Fair Grounds Race 5

Post: 3:05 PM CT; Purse: $53,000 Allowance Optional Claiming, 1 1/16 Miles on Dirt; Entries: 6

  • #4 TELLMEONASUNDAY (5-2) looks tough to beat here given the edge in a number of key categories including speed & power rating.
  • #2 MISS TULSA (3-1) has to be respected based on the jockey trainer combination.
  • #5 SARIAH SARIAH (7-2) is worth a look here given edges in record at the distance & pace numbers.
  • #1 I'M FINE (7-2) looks to have to have kept the best company in the previous starts.

Selections: 4-2-5-1 (Best Bet: #4 TELLMEONASUNDAY)

The Fair Grounds Race 6

Post: 3:35 PM CT; Purse: $46,000 Maiden Special Weight, 1 Mile on Turf; Entries: 13

  • #2 DIAMANT DAMHSA (7-2) is worth a look here given edges in connections & record at the distance.
  • #1 SURELY (10-1) should be competitive based on the overall power rating which has it tops in the group.
  • #3 COCO PUFF (8-1) is proven as a good bet to at least hit the board under today's distance and surface conditions.
  • #6 MY FRIEND AMY (10-1) should be in the right spot early to give this horse a chance to get the job done.

Selections: 2-1-3-6

The Fair Grounds Race 7

Post: 4:05 PM CT; Purse: $36,000 Starter Allowance, 1 Mile on Dirt; Entries: 9

  • #9 COLONELSDARKTEMPER (7-2) should be competitive today based on the horse's overall speed & power rating.
  • #1 SHORTLIST (8-1) could get a perfect pace scenario today. The price is right on this one to take a shot.
  • #8 OURNATIONONPARADE (12-1) is worth a look here given edges in class & form. My guess is this one could take some money and may end up closer to 6-1 by post.
  • #2 INTREPID HEART (3-1) has been a horse I’ve always liked. However, this one always seems to be a good, but not great runner. I think this one hits the board, but I’m not sure its the strongest win candidate.

Selections: 9-1-8-2

The Fair Grounds Race 8

Post: 4:36 PM CT; Purse: $75,000 Mardi Gras S., About 5 1/2 Furlongs on Turf; Entries: 8

  • Mardi Gras Stakes analysis provided above.

Selections: 5-4-2-8

The Fair Grounds Race 9

Post: 5:07 PM CT; Purse: $54,000 Allowance, 1 Mile on Dirt; Entries: 11

  • #2 MARTINIZED (7-2) is worth a look here given edges in class & power rating.
  • #7 MORE MEMORIES (9-2) will likely have the stamina to outlast these in the final jumps of the race.
  • #11 DRILLING REPORT (6-1) makes some sense on paper, but would have to be considered a fringe player at best. This one definitely could be a player in the vertical exotics.
  • #5 OUR BLUE JAY (6-1) merits consideration in this spot given edges in speed & form.

Selections: 2-7-11-5

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By Chris Adams

Chris first got introduced to horse racing in 2009 at Canterbury Park (Shakopee, MN). Along with handicapping and betting, Chris has worked as a teller at his local track and participated in ownership partnerships. He now enjoys sharing his passion with his wife and two young daughters who love going out to the track each and every summer.