The third race this Saturday at Gulfstream Park is packed with quality horse racing and a few good betting opportunities. The first stakes race on the card is one of those.
This 7 furlongs race for Fillies is packed with speed so we should see a few horses duking it out early.
Can that setup the race for a horse that can come from behind like FLORIDA FUEGO (number 2) or STARSHIP BONITA (Nr 5)?
The Gulfstream Park dirt racetrack tends to favor speed horses though and in the case of the 7 furlong races, horses running on the outside appear to have an edge.
The number 6 STARCLOUD might be able to score once again on a track she loves. She did beat the likely favorite ALTER MOON (Post Position 1) in the past but can she do it again despite the likely hot pace?
In the 3rd race of Gulfstream Park on June 30 2018, the field notes are as follow:
Number 1, ALTER MOON comes off a win on June 3rd and the trainer has impressive stats when it comes to winning twice in a row (44%). She destroyed the field on that day at Gulfstream Park but the race was at a lower class. Still, the speed figure she earned then is the best recorded among that field but I suspect that the wire to wire win helped inflate it a bit. She won’t have an easy race today and she is likely to be bet a lot (she is the morning line odds favorite at 8-5)… I will pass on her at a short price and think she will have a tough time today.
Number 2 FLORIDA FUEGO comes off a tight win at Gulfstream Park on June 6 at a similar class level. This come from behind horse was well setup by the hot pace on that day and it is likely that once again the pace will be quick enough for her to have a shot. Her speed figures so far in her career have not been great, however. She seems outmatched, speed figure wise, but if the pace is hot enough, she might be able to pick off a win. The morning line odds of 5-1 are not very juicy but should she drift closer to the 8-1 range she might be an interesting longshot to consider.
Number 3, AURORA PRINCESS, steps up in class to the stakes level for the first time and did not even win her last one against weaker opposition… With weak speed figures throughout her career and a speed profile which is likely to be too little against tougher opposition for the lead, I think that AURORA PRINCESS will not be a factor and can be dismissed.
Number 4, WRITER’S ALMANAC, started her career in Porto Rico and after 4 solid wins moved to the Florida big leagues at Gulfstream Park. After a tough debut here last year she took a break and came back to place in a stakes race but like AURORA PRINCESS, her pace profile though suited for the track might be facing too much competition today and she does not have to have a ton to offer today except maybe spoiling the early pace. Pass.
Number 5 STARSHIP BONITA is a come from behind horse which usually is not a plus at Gulfstream Park but considering the multiple speed horses likely to duke it out today, the pace scenario might end up favoring STARSHIP BONITA. That being said, the horse has not won in 2018 and has never posted very impressive speed figures. Recent workouts are mild at best and her trainer and jockey are not a very successful bunch at this track. STARSHIP BONITA is likely to go out at a relatively low price and will probably not offer a lot of value. At 10-1 odds, I would be tempted but it is unlikely that she gets so high considering her success historically at Gulfstream Park.
Number 6, STARCLOUD has a speed profile and the outside position which is statistically successful at this racetrack. She failed last time in a Group I stake and comes back a few notches in class today to probably more realistic levels for her. She has proven that she can beat STARCLOUD and maybe we can put the loss in the Acorn G1 in parentheses and believe that she can progress as if nothing happened in a more suitable class. With 4 wins in 5 races at Gulfstream Park, she is going to have a few fans…I hope that her odds drift a bit higher but I would still like her at 2-1 or more
CONCLUSION:
ALTER MOON comes in with the highest speed figure last time out and a blow out win that hopefully will attract the eye of casual bettors. I believe that STARCLOUD will have the upper hand however unless her chances are spoiled by an incredibly hot pace. In this case FLORIDA FUEGO might be the one picking up the race at an interesting price
JUNE 30 GULFSTREAM PARK RACE 3 BETTING ADVICE:
WIN BET at 2-1 or more on Number 6 STARCLOUD
WIN BET at 8-1 or more on Number 2 FLORIDA FUEGO
Exacta Box 6-2