The 6th race of Saturday July 7 at Gulfstream park is an ungraded stakes for $100 000 run over 1 mile on the Turf.
A heavy favourite starts from an outside post position but faces a relatively inexperienced field, including a Maiden…
Pace handicapping analysis tells us that the morning line odds favourite, CAMILLA PRINCESS, will have to come back from way behind to win on the wire and if there is little speed in the early stages, that will make her day more difficult.
In the 6th race of Gulfstream Park on July 7 2018, the field notes are as follow:
Number 1, PROSPECTIVELY comes off a win but that was in a claimer for $30 000 and that was only her 2nd career win. She won her first race in May and, again, was offered for a price tag in that one. The connections do not seem to value her too much and the lack of confidence is even more concerning as she is a girl. If PROSPECTIVELY had any good potential or good genes, they would likely not risk losing her repeatedly. I think that this stakes entry was hard to pass on due to the prizemoney structure but that they will fight only for a minor place as she seems outclassed.
Number 2 KATHY’S CLOWN comes back to the turf, a surface she does not seem to like much, having been off the board 4 times in 4 tries. She broke her maiden on dirt but failed to repeat though she came close. She had a pretty bad trip last out though but performed nicely and closed strongly, which is a good trait on turf. At three years of age it is still possible to progress and maybe in the two months rest, KATHY’S CLOWN did just that. The 10-1 morning line odds is an OK bet that she is better today and very valid in exotic bets.
Number 3, R PAPER CHASER was also offered for a price last out and won it after race review by the stewards (she was very close to winning anyway). The first part of the sentence is a negative but the second part is quite a positive as it was her first try on turf and her best race since the Maiden win last year here at Gulfstream Park. Maybe Turf is her thing but R PAPER CHASER only competed in short sprints so far so there is a big question mark on the ability to stay for a mile. There is not a lot of pace in the race however, so it is possible that she could cruise to an easy lead and that would certainly help her chances to go all the way. The jump in class and the jump in distance are hard to bet on though.
Number 4, UNSTABLENTHEMORNIN broke her Maiden last year at Gulfstream Park on the turf and that gave enough confidence to her connections to move her straight to Stakes where she failed every time… In 2018 she has started a downward class path, way down to the $10 000 claiming ranks and was soundly beaten on every step down. It looks like UNSTABLENTHEMORNIN is a broken horse and I expect her to be beaten once again today.
Number 5 WHITEHEELGIRL is reunited for this one with the only jockey that led her to victory, twice in her career. The last win came on the same mile turf distance across the Florida handle in Tampa bay where she was claimed for $40 000. She switched hands again on the very next race for $50 000 so congratulations to a smart trainer. WHITEHEELGIRL did not win money for the betting public in the last two starts however and was pretty disappointing both times. Last one was on the dirt and she went into a pace war and faltered. Maybe the return to familiar turf will help? Her record at the distance is not too bad and better than others. With a familiar jockey and able to stay in striking range in the weak pace, she might be good enough to claim a spot on the podium at nice odds.
Number 6, STRIKEMYFANCY has never won a race. This is not something that a race analyst writes often in the context of a stakes, ungraded one today, but still. She had a bit of an unfavorable trip last time out, but I don’t think that she was necessarily the best in that Maiden Special Weight race anyway. The jump straight to stakes is surprising but maybe the connections see a way to make a quick buck in a relatively short field (place 6 and the owner makes a $2000 profit). Her early speed appears to be relatively good so STRIKEMYFANCY might be able to stay within striking distance, but I don’t think she will break her Maiden today.
Number 7, MIDNIGHT SOIREE, finished second last time out behind a horse who went on to win a Stakes race of about the same caliber as today’s. That’s a sign that maybe MIDNIGHT SOIREE also has the class needed to win in this company. MIDNIGHT SOIREE had a good trip in that last race though but finished well enough on the same 1 mile turf of Gulfstream Park. She seems to like racing fresh and the last race was for sure her best try lifetime so she has a place in this race. I will need better odds than 5-1 to take her for win however.
Number 8, CAMILA PRINCESS is without a doubt the one to beat here. The only proven stakes winner this year, she is coming back down to the ungraded kind. She tried her luck in New York last month and did not demerit, especially considering she was parked outside all the way on the tight turns of Belmont Park… CAMILA PRINCESS comes back today to her home base of Gulfstream Park, on a distance she won at, with a jockey she won with and at a class level she managed in the past. It is hard to see her beat today. The only thing that could annoy her is the pace as there looks to be none of it today. But CAMILA PRINCESS is without a doubt the best horse on paper and she deserves support at the top of most exotic bets tickets and maybe for a win bet if the odds stay above 1-1.
Number 9, SILVERBAY has an ungraded stakes win under his belt in his late 2-year-old campaign but failed to repeat at three years old. These were not easy races and today she switches surfaces to try the turf for the first time. Her sire is unproven on the turf, genetics-wise, so we don’t have a lot of data to work with to see if SILVER BAY will like the surface. Her trainer is not particularly talented on it historically so the betting public might be misled by the published stats for this season alone. With SILVER BAY trying the surface for the first time and extending to a route, I think she will be a pace factor, but I will take a stand against her in the betting.
CONCLUSION:
The likely favorite is a very strong choice despite a question mark on the pace scenario.
In a stakes race especially, paying attention to the class of racehorses is paramount to finding winners. Here CAMILA PRINCESS appears to be well above the field in that regard.
When you factor in the step down in class out of an unlucky trip, it is hard to think that anyone else can win it, unless CAMILA PRINCESS gets very unlucky.
It is not certain that her win odds will be so juicy however, so I think that the best bets will be to mix her up in exotic bets with a couple of longshots who have a chance to claim a spot on the podium.
I think that KATHY’S CLOWN has a chance to come back stronger today and should be interesting odds for the 2nd or third spot on the exotic bets.
WHITEHEEL GIRL is also returning to more familiar confines so an improved performance can be expected and if the morning line odds hold relatively true, she is a great addition in the exacta and trifecta.
MIDNIGHT SOIREE has a good chance for the win if the favourite is having a bad day, but I would not bet on it. She might very well place though so having her part of your exotic bets is a must.
JULY 7 GULFSTREAM PARK RACE 6 BETTING PICKS:
$5 EXACTA, 1 with 2/5
$1 EXACTA, 2/5/7 with 1
$1 EXACTA box 2/5/7
$1 TRIFECTA 1 with 2/5/7 and 2/5/7