There is not a whole lot of early speed in this race, so a lot will depend on the usual track bias being present or not.
Usually, horse going straight to the lead and starting from the inside fare better. Recently the inverse has been true however and horses coming from behind have taken top spot more often…
Regardless of a possible Gulfstream Park track bias, we have a whole field full of question marks…
With so many questions, the best answer might be a longshot…
Analysis and picks for the 5th race at Gulfstream Park on September 8 2018:
Number 1, MY CHINUMADO is one of the few horses likely to go for the lead but he is not very likely to be able to hang on to it. MY CHINUMADO won his last race about a week ago and that’s a pretty good sign as he has been running very well back to back. He is a 3-year-old against an older crowd however and so far in his career his speed figures have been dismal compared to the top billing in this race. With a top beyer speed figure last out, MYCHINUMADO is likely to bounce a bit and even if he does not, it just seems like a very big class difference with the field
Number 2 CAUTIOUS GIANT is labelled as the morning line odds favorite by the track handicapper and there is no denying that he has a strong hand but mostly if the pace is pretty hot and I am not sure that it will be. Class-wise, CAUTIOUS GIANT is in the right place. He has fared OK in previous stakes races, winning one, and no other horse really has a better record at that class level. The distance is good too, but CAUTIOUS GIANT will need some fast pace in front of him to set him up and I don’t think he is going to get it. Moreover, CAUTIOUS GIANT has a history of finishing second so maybe his winning spirit leaves to be desired. As the favorite and at a short price, I don’t like CAUTIOUS GIANT’s odds to win it.
Number 3, CROCODILE CHARLIE won his last race right here at Gulfstream Park, coming from behind, which is a newfound style for the horse. The win last month was at lower class level but CROCODILE CHARLIE won in the stretch despite the very slow pace set up by the leader, today’s Harryhee. We might see the same scenario repeat itself today but considering the big performance of CROCODILE CHARLIE last month, it is possible that he would bounce a bit. The recent workout is pretty encouraging but the switch of trainer and jockey not necessarily… It sounds a bit risky to bet on CROCODILE CHARLIE at relatively low odds but he certainly have a chance.
Number 4, QUIJOTE works for a new trainer and she took a bit of time to get to know him. QUIJOTE did not train very fast since so that is not particularly encouraging. He raced and won at this class level last year but has not had a good year 2018. The switch of trainer could help but she is a bit green and therefore I am not sure we can expect a miracle. I think that it is better to just watch QUIJOTE run today.
Number 5 DIDDLEY has run about as well on turf and dirt and had good result switching surfaces, as did his trainer. DIDDLEY has tried the stakes class level a few times but always fell short and he has not won a race of any kind in the last 4 tries. He has a good track record at Gulfstream Park and on the distance so maybe this is the day when DIDDLEY turns things around? He will need a big performance to win it but a place is not out of question and the odds on DIDDLEY should be pretty interesting.
Number 6, ALL GOLDEN needed 14 races to finally win one and did it in a Maiden Claming race, about the lowest class possible. He followed that win with a cheap claiming race and did terribly. ALL GOLDEN has no place in this race and should not be a factor at all.
Number 7, HARRYHEE inexplicably weakened in the stretch in his last race and lost to today’s Crocodile Charlie. Maybe the last two races were too close to one another and the slightly longer vacation will have helped? Today, HARRYHEE should again face little pace opposition and the outside post position could be beneficial paradoxically as there might be some track bias. HARRYHEE needs to get back to his best to win but a place on the podium is likely.
CONCLUSION:
There is no overwhelming class or speed in this field and therefore it is a pretty wide-open race and hard to predict.
I see no reason to bet on the short-priced favorite despite the likelihood that he will play a role on the podium. Other major contenders have probably as good a chance as him but they all also have some questions to answer…
For this reason, I will take a stab with one of the longshots, DIDDLEY.
He will need the race of a lifetime to win but against this shaky field, it might be his best chance.
DIDDLEY should go out at interesting odds and is worth a bet.
SEPTEMBER 8 GULFTREAM PARK RACE 5 BETTING PICKS:
WIN/PLACE/SHOW BET at 5-1 or more on Number 5 DIDDLEY