The Risen Star on Saturday will be the first Kentucky Derby prep race to offer more than 20 points. With the season heating up, here’s a look at the most predictive prep races.
2022 Road to the Kentucky Derby
The following is a breakdown of every race on the Road to the Kentucky Derby in 2022. The points system has only been around since 2013 so there is a very limited dataset from which to draw on.
In order to determine rank, races were given 5 points for producing a Derby winner, 3 for a 2nd place finisher, and 1 point for a third place finis.
Best Prep Circuits
Although there is limited data, the early indications are that the best horses in the country exit the prep races in one of two jurisdictions. By far Santa Anita has produced the most Derby winners from the top 3 finishers in their prep races. Having two Triple Crown winners during that span sure does help.
However, another sneakily productive circuit is in Florida with both the Florida Derby and the Fountain of Youth Ranking in the top 10.
Baffert Off the Derby Trail
In the 2022 winners you will see many of the prep finishers marked with an asterisk. These are Bob Baffert runners who did receive the points earned toward the Kentucky Derby because of the 2021 drug positive of Medina Spirit.
If these horses are to run, Churchill Downs would have to lift the ban and retroactively award the points or the horses will need to be moved to a new trainer before they are eligible to accrue points.
Road to the Kentucky Derby Preps
Kentucky Derby Prep Series
Iroquois (Churchill Downs 10-4-2-1)
- Rank: #20
- Top 3 Finishers Derby Record: (0-1-0)
- 2021 Top 3 Finishers (Final Derby Placings): Sittin On Go, Midnight Bourbon, Super Stock (X-6-16)
- 2022 Top 3 Finishers: Major General, Tough to Tame, Red Knobs
American Pharoah (Santa Anita Park 10-4-2-1)
Previously known as the Front Runner Stakes
- Rank: #6
- Top 3 Finishers Derby Record: (2-0-0)
- 2021 Top 3 Finishers (Final Derby Placings): Get Her Number, Rombauer, Spielberg (X-X-X)
- 2022 Top 3 Finishers: Corniche*, Pappacap, Oviatt Class
Champagne (Belmont Park 10-4-2-1)
- Rank: #10
- Top 3 Finishers Derby Record: (0-3-0)
- 2021 Top 3 Finishers (Final Derby Placings): Jackie's Warrior, Reinvestment Risk, Midnight Bourbon (X-X-6)
- 2022 Top 3 Finishers: Jack Christopher, Commandperformance, Wit
Breeders’ Futurity (Keeneland 10-4-2-1)
- Rank: #13
- Top 3 Finishers Derby Record: (0-2-0)
- 2021 Top 3 Finishers (Final Derby Placings): Essential Quality, Keepmeinmind, Super Stock (4-7-16)
- 2022 Top 3 Finishers: Rattle N Roll, Double Thunder, Classic Causeway
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (Del Mar 20-8-4-2)
- Rank: #12
- Top 3 Finishers Derby Record: (1-1-0)
- 2021 Top 3 Finishers (Final Derby Placings): Essential Quality, Hot Rod Charlie, Keepmeinmind (4-3-7)
- 2022 Top 3 Finishers: Corniche*, Pappacap, Giant Game
Kentucky Jockey Club (Churchill Downs 10-4-2-1)
- Rank: #20
- Top 3 Finishers Derby Record: (0-1-0)
- 2021 Top 3 Finishers (Final Derby Placings): Keepmeinmind, Smiley Sobotka, Arabian Prince (7-X-X)
- 2022 Top 3 Finishers: Smile Happy, Classic Causeway, White Abarrio
Remsen (Aqueduct 10-4-2-1)
- Rank: #26
- Top 3 Finishers Derby Record: (0-0-0)
- 2021 Top 3 Finishers (Final Derby Placings): Brooklyn Strong, Ten for Ten, Known Agenda (15-X-9)
- 2022 Top 3 Finishers: Mo Donegal, Zandon, Midnight Chrome
Los Alamitos Futurity (Los Alamitos Race Course 10-4-2-1)
- Rank: #18
- Top 3 Finishers Derby Record: (0-1-1)
- 2021 Top 3 Finishers (Final Derby Placings): Spielberg, The Great One, Petruchio (X-X-X)
- 2022 Top 3 Finishers: Slow Down Andy, Messier*, Barossa*
Springboard Mile (Remington Park 10-4-2-1)
- Rank: #26
- Top 3 Finishers Derby Record: (0-0-0)
- 2021 Top 3 Finishers (Final Derby Placings): Senor Buscador, Cowan, Red N Wild (X-X-X)
- 2022 Top 3 Finishers: Make It Big, Osbourne, Concept*
Gun Runner (Fair Grounds 10-4-2-1)
- Rank: #26
- Top 3 Finishers Derby Record: (0-0-0)
- 2021 Top 3 Finishers (Final Derby Placings): New (N/A)
- 2022 Top 3 Finishers: Epicenter, Tejano Twist, Surfer Dude
Smarty Jones (Oaklawn Park 10-4-2-1)
- Rank: #26
- Top 3 Finishers Derby Record: (0-0-0)
- 2021 Top 3 Finishers (Final Derby Placings): Caddo River, Cowan, Big Thorn (X-X-X)
- 2022 Top 3 Finishers: Courvoisier, Smarten Up, Cooke Creek
Jerome (Aqueduct 10-4-2-1)
- Rank: #26
- Top 3 Finishers Derby Record: (0-0-0)
- 2021 Top 3 Finishers (Final Derby Placings): Capo Kane, Eagle Orb, Hold the Salsa (X-X-X)
- 2022 Top 3 Finishers: Dash Attack, Barber Road, Ignitis
Sham (Santa Anita Park 10-4-2-1)
- Rank: #6
- Top 3 Finishers Derby Record: (2-0-0)
- 2021 Top 3 Finishers (Final Derby Placings): Life Is Good, Medina Spirit, Parnelli (X-1-X)
- 2022 Top 3 Finishers: Newgrange*, Rockefeller*, Oviatt Class
Lecomte (Fair Grounds 10-4-2-1)
- Rank: #13
- Top 3 Finishers Derby Record: (0-2-0)
- 2021 Top 3 Finishers (Final Derby Placings): Midnight Bourbon, Proxy, Mandaloun (6-X-2)
- 2022 Top 3 Finishers: Call Me Midnight, Epicenter, Pappacap
Southwest (Oaklawn Park 10-4-2-1)
- Rank: #13
- Top 3 Finishers Derby Record: (0-2-0)
- 2021 Top 3 Finishers (Final Derby Placings): Essential Quality, Spielberg, Jackie's Warror (4-X-X)
- 2022 Top 3 Finishers: Newgrange*, Barber Road, Ben Diesel
Holy Bull (Gulfstream Park 10-4-2-1)
- Rank: #18
- Top 3 Finishers Derby Record: (0-1-1)
- 2021 Top 3 Finishers (Final Derby Placings): Greatest Honour, Tarantino, Prime Factor (X-X-X)
- 2022 Top 3 Finishers: Early Voting, Un Ojo, Gilded Age
Withers (Aqueduct 10-4-2-1)
- Rank: #23
- Top 3 Finishers Derby Record: (0-0-1)
- 2021 Top 3 Finishers (Final Derby Placings): Risk Taking, Overtook, Capo Kane (X-X-X)
- 2022 Top 3 Finishers: White Abarrio, Simplification, Mo Donegal
Robert B. Lewis (Santa Anita Park 10-4-2-1)
- Rank: #6
- Top 3 Finishers Derby Record: (1-1-2)
- 2021 Top 3 Finishers (Final Derby Placings): Medina Spirit, Roman Centurian, Hot Rod Charlie (1-X-3)
- 2022 Top 3 Finishers: Messier*, Cabo Spirit, Wharton*
Sam F. Davis (Tampa Bay Downs 10-4-2-1)
- Rank: #26
- Top 3 Finishers Derby Record: (0-0-0)
- 2021 Top 3 Finishers (Final Derby Placings): Candy Man Rocket, Nova Rags, Hidden Stash (X-X-13)
- 2022 Top 3 Finishers: Classic Causeway, Shipsational, Volcanic
El Camino Real Derby (Golden Gate Fields 10-4-2-1)
- Rank: #26
- Top 3 Finishers Derby Record: (0-0-0)
- 2021 Top 3 Finishers (Final Derby Placings): Rombauer, Javanica, Govenor's Party (X-X-X)
- 2022 Top 3 Finishers: Blackadder*, Mackinnon, Del Mo
Risen Star (Fair Grounds 50-20-10-5)
- Rank: #10
- Top 3 Finishers Derby Record: (1-1-1)
- 2021 Top 3 Finishers (Final Derby Placings): Mandaloun, Proxy, Midnight Bourbon (2-X-6)
- 2022 Top 3 Finishers: Not Yet Run
Rebel (Oaklawn Park 50-20-10-5)
- Rank: #17
- Top 3 Finishers Derby Record: (1-0-0)
- 2021 Top 3 Finishers (Final Derby Placings): Concert Tour, Hozier, Big Lake (X-X-X)
- 2022 Top 3 Finishers: Not Yet Run
John Battaglia Memorial (Turfway Park 10-4-2-1)
- Rank: #26
- Top 3 Finishers Derby Record: (0-0-0)
- 2021 Top 3 Finishers (Final Derby Placings): Hush of a Storm, Like the King, Gretzky the Great (X-12-X)
- 2022 Top 3 Finishers: Not Yet Run
Road to the Kentucky Derby Championship Series
Fountain of Youth (Gulfstream Park 50-20-10-5)
- Rank: #5
- Top 3 Finishers Derby Record: (1-2-0)
- 2021 Top 3 Finishers (Final Derby Placings): Greatest Honour, Drain the Clock, Papetu (X-X-X)
- 2022 Top 3 Finishers: Not Yet Run
Gotham (Aqueduct 50-20-10-5)
- Rank: #26
- Top 3 Finishers Derby Record: (0-0-0)
- 2021 Top 3 Finishers (Final Derby Placings): Weyburn, Crowded Trade, Highly Motivated (X-X-10)
- 2022 Top 3 Finishers: Not Yet Run
San Felipe (Santa Anita Park 50-20-10-5)
- Rank: #3
- Top 3 Finishers Derby Record: (3-1-1)
- 2021 Top 3 Finishers (Final Derby Placings): Life Is Good, Medina Spirit, Dream Shake (X-1-X)
- 2022 Top 3 Finishers: Not Yet Run
Tampa Bay Derby (Tampa Bay Downs 50-20-10-5)
- Rank: #23
- Top 3 Finishers Derby Record: (0-0-1)
- 2021 Top 3 Finishers (Final Derby Placings): Helium, Hidden Stash, Moonlight Strike (8-14-X)
- 2022 Top 3 Finishers: Not Yet Run
UAE Derby (Meydan Racecourse 100-40-20-10)
- Rank: #26
- Top 3 Finishers Derby Record: (0-0-0)
- 2021 Top 3 Finishers (Final Derby Placings): Rebel's Romance (IRE), Panadol, New Treasure (IRE) (X-X-X)
- 2022 Top 3 Finishers: Not Yet Run
Louisiana Derby (Fair Grounds 100-40-20-10)
- Rank: #6
- Top 3 Finishers Derby Record: (1-1-2)
- 2021 Top 3 Finishers (Final Derby Placings): Hot Rod Charlie, Midnight Bourbon, O Besos (3-6-5)
- 2022 Top 3 Finishers: Not Yet Run
Sunland Derby (Sunland Park 50-20-10-5)
- Rank: #20
- Top 3 Finishers Derby Record: (0-1-0)
- 2021 Top 3 Finishers (Final Derby Placings): Cancelled (N/A)
- 2022 Top 3 Finishers: Not Yet Run
Florida Derby (Gulfstream Park 100-40-20-10)
- Rank: #2
- Top 3 Finishers Derby Record: (3-2-1)
- 2021 Top 3 Finishers (Final Derby Placings): Known Agenda, Soup and Sandwich, Greatest Honour (9-19-X)
- 2022 Top 3 Finishers: Not Yet Run
Arkansas Derby (Oaklawn Park 100-40-20-10)
- Rank: #4
- Top 3 Finishers Derby Record: (2-1-1)
- 2021 Top 3 Finishers (Final Derby Placings): Super Stock, Caddo River, Concert Tour (16-X-X)
- 2022 Top 3 Finishers: Not Yet Run
Jeff Ruby Steaks (Turfway Park 100-40-20-10)
- Rank: #26
- Top 3 Finishers Derby Record: (0-0-0)
- 2021 Top 3 Finishers (Final Derby Placings): Like The King, Sainthood, Hockey Dad (12-11-X)
- 2022 Top 3 Finishers: Not Yet Run
Wood Memorial (Aqueduct 100-40-20-10)
- Rank: #23
- Top 3 Finishers Derby Record: (0-0-1)
- 2021 Top 3 Finishers (Final Derby Placings): Bourbonic, Dynamic One, Crowded Trade (13-18-X)
- 2022 Top 3 Finishers: Not Yet Run
Blue Grass (Keeneland 100-40-20-10)
- Rank: #13
- Top 3 Finishers Derby Record: (0-2-0)
- 2021 Top 3 Finishers (Final Derby Placings): Essential Quality, Highly Motivated, Rombauer (4-10-X)
- 2022 Top 3 Finishers: Not Yet Run
Santa Anita Derby (Santa Anita Park 100-40-20-10)
- Rank: #1
- Top 3 Finishers Derby Record: (4-1-2)
- 2021 Top 3 Finishers (Final Derby Placings): Rock Your World, Medina Spirit, Dream Shake (17-1-X)
- 2022 Top 3 Finishers: Not Yet Run
Road to the Kentucky Derby Wildcards
Lexington (Keeneland 20-8-4-2)
- Rank: #26
- Top 3 Finishers Derby Record: (0-0-0)
- 2021 Top 3 Finishers (Final Derby Placings): King Fury, Unbridled Honor, Starrininmydreams (X-X-X)
- 2022 Top 3 Finishers: Not Yet Run
Click here for a full list of the 2022 Road to the Kentucky Derby standings.
