A grey day is forecast but there is not a high risk of rain, so we can expect that the race will go on as planned on the inner turf course of Saratoga.
That should scratch one horse, but you will still have 6 very impressive horses to pick from. This Fourstardave Handicap Grade 1 race is truly well matched…
The pace scenario should be kind for come-from-behind horses and one of those is well placed in the starting gate to capitalize at decent odds.
Analysis and picks for the 8th race at Saratoga on August 11 2018:
Number 1, WEEKEND HIDEAWAY, is entered to race on the main track only but given the weather forecast for today at Saratoga, I expect the race to run on turf and WEEKEND HIDEAWAY should be scratched.
Number 2 DELTA PRINCE draws the best post position in the field and has a good pace profile to capitalize on it. He should be able to start alertly and be tucked on the inside behind battling pace setters starting from outside gates, and who, therefore, will have to spend a bit of energy to go to the front. DELTA PRINCE has won half of his races lifetime but none of them were at the Grade 1 level so that’s a bit of a concern. He has however won at this very track last year and will make a second start this year so maybe he can even improve from the win two months ago in a Grade 2. It looks like DELTA PRINCE is still working out well, so he could be ready to strike again, though the class is in question.
Number 3, DIVIDISERO has never won at this distance and never run at Saratoga but he did win a lesser graded stake race last month and came close in two others this year. DIVISIDERO has a Grade 1 stakes win under his belt from last year, but he was not able to repeat at the class level, so it is not sure he will have what it takes to win today. The distance is probably too short for his liking, but he does have the right come-from-behind racing style, so he can certainly claim a spot on the podium, I am not sure about the first place though.
Number 4, MADE YOU LOOK hopes to come back a hero at Saratoga, having won on this track a couple of years ago in a Grade 2 race. Following that graded win, MADE YOU LOOK tried the Breeders Cup and failed but rebounded in a Grade 3 to kick off his 3-years-old season. It has not been rosy since though and MADE YOU LOOK has failed repeatedly at lesser class levels, only winning again barely in an Optional Claiming race at Belmont in the spring. MADE YOU LOOK works for the hottest trainer this season at Saratoga so that’s certainly a plus. The almost two months break is maybe a plus, though one could wish to see better workouts… I like the steady progression in them however. I think that MADE YOU LOOK could surprise, given that he works for a red-hot barn but based on the past performances, I don’t think that he can really win against this field and the odds are probably going to be too low to include him on betting tickets.
Number 5 HEART TO HEART is a multiple grade 1 stakes winner with already two bagged this year alone. He has a proven track record at Saratoga and at the distance. HEART TO HEART is definitely a major threat. There are some shadows in the profile however. For one, HEART TO HEART lost his last race, having started slower than usual under his jockey who, one should note, is not having a great season so far. We should assume that on the tight turns of the inner turf track, the rider will try to go for the lead to avoid being parked outside. That should be possible, but it will require some energy and there is competition for the lead today too. There is no denying that HEART TO HEART has what it takes to win but with a poor starting gate, possible pace pressure and a recent form in question, I think that HEART TO HEART is a favorite to bet against today.
Number 6, VOODOO SONG is a one speed horse: full throttle from the get go. It has worked for him many times, but never at the Graded stakes class level and today he needs to go for the lead from a poor starting gate. VOODOO SONG will likely attract a good chunk of the betting public money, given his 4 for 4 winning record at Saratoga last year. He was facing easier opposition then and I think that starting from the outside on the tight turns of Saratoga and facing some classy horses VOODOO SONG will not be able to go all the way and will falter in the stretch or earlier.
Number 7, YOSHIDA comes back home after an attempt at Ascot where he did ok. Before that, he won a difficult Grade 1 race so there is obviously some talent in this colt. Will it be enough to win it, starting from a poor post position today? Maybe not. The workouts are not so hot leading to this one and there was a bit of a break since the UK race. YOSHIDA’s best races have been on longer and Saratoga has not been very successful for him yet. His trainer is doing well on this track this year, but I think that there are enough question marks to pass on YOSHIDA today.
CONCLUSION:
There should be some early sparks between two outside horses, fighting for the lead. They are likely to tire some time near the stretch, opening the door for come behind horses.
Of those, I think that DELTA PRINCE will be the best positioned. He has enough early speed to make use of his great post position and he will be close enough to strike in the stretch, even if it turns out that the pace is slower than expected.
One of the biggest longshots in this short field could make the exacta interesting. The favorites are likely going to tire in the stretch and though he usually comes from far behind, on longer distances, maybe DIVISIDERO can grab a spot on the podium today to spice up the exotic bets.
AUGUST 11 SARATOGA RACETRACK RACE 8 BETTING PICKS:
WIN BET at 3-1 or more on Number 2 DELTA PRINCE
Exacta Box 2-3