It should be an interesting betting opportunity at the Saratoga racetrack, as long as you are willing to bet against the favorite…
HOFBURG has been doing ok in the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes and will most likely go out at very short odds. It is however possible that the pace scenario be unfavorable to him… Today’s race is a good opportunity to attempt a score against the betting public impressed by his Triple Crown performances.
With more rain expected, I believe that we will still see an early-speed track bias at Saratoga and only one horse is likely to benefit I think.
Analysis of the 9th race at the Saratoga Race Track on July 27 2018:
Number 1, HOFBURG has done ok in top class Graded 1 stakes this year. He took part in the Florida Stakes, Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes and reached the podium in two contests. On the basis of speed figures, he is well above the rest but is running style is to come from behind and it is helpful to have a hot pace for that to work. Today he is unlikely to get it. HOFBURG is racing in a much easier class today and on the basis of speed figures, he can destroy this field. He has never won a race except his Maiden however and he might be hindered by the post position and the pace scenario. I think that HOFBURG is menacing but as a likely odds-on favorite, I want to take a gamble against him.
Number 2 MADISON’S LUNA comes in well placed in class as he won a Graded Stakes in the spring which would disqualify him, had it been on longer distance. That win showed his early speed and if he can make use of it again today, MADISON’S LUNA might be able to grab an easy lead. Lately, on the Saratoga Racetrack, we have seen many wire-to-wire wins… There is some rain in the forecast, so I would prefer to see a win in his “wet racing” column but the pedigree looks pretty good for these conditions so maybe MADISON’S LUNA can excel on the sloppy track. It is by no means a sure deal but with little early speed opposition, MADISON’S LUNA can go wire to wire at interesting odds.
Number 3, ZING ZANG has only 1 win in 9 tries but he has been racing in tough company. Still, he never did very well in the higher class level and did not do so well last month in a lower class either… ZING ZANG is a closer and can fly in the stretch but, with little early speed in the race, the conditions for a closing win are not great. I don’t see ZING ZANG winning his second race today.
Number 4, NICODEMUS is lightly raced and come to us straight from the maiden win earlier this month. That was not a bad performance or bad class level but nothing ground breaking either… NICODEMUS has late speed apparently and that will not be a plus today with a cool pace expected in the early goings. NICODEMUS switches trainers for better so it is possible that the colt has improved a bit since the last race but he needs to improve a lot to win today and I don’t think that the setup will be favorable for him.
Number 5 AMERICAN LINCOLN has done well on the distance and is experienced in the rain, but those performances were at lower class levels. In stakes company, AMERICAN LINCOLN has placed but never came close to the speed figures needed to win today. He has enough early speed to stay close to the lead so grabbing a spot on the podium is possible, but it looks hard for the win.
Number 6, RERIDE has already won a couple of races at this class level and placed in a Graded stakes abroad so the class level seems to be there. RERIDE also very much has a winning spirit with 4 out of 7 races won. All the wins came while pressing the pace, so the big question is what strategy will the jockey go after? There is not a lot of speed in the race so on paper it is conceivable that RERIDE could grab the lead, but he has never done so. I think he will settle in just behind the early stage leader and try to pounce in the stretch. We need to look a bit into the mindset of the trainer here though. He raced last in a turf route and did not do great. The two subsequent workouts were still on turf which tells me that the trainer has or had his eyes set on another turf try. I think that maybe this is not really the race that the connections are after so, though dangerous, I think it is best to pass on RERIDE today except in the exotic bets.
CONCLUSION:
The favorite will go out at tiny odds based on the participation in Triple Crown races and the speed figures. I think that there are enough question marks to take a stand against him however and try to score with another winner.
There is not a lot of early speed in the race and with rain still on the forecast I suspect that there will still be a track bias at Saratoga.
I think that MADISON’S LUNA has the best shot at upsetting HOFBURG and I will make a bet on that.
If HOFBURG falters completely, AMERICAN’S LINCOLN might be able to grab a place at long odds.
JULY 27 SARATOGA RACETRACK RACE 9 BETTING PICKS:
WIN BET at 3-1 or more on Number 2 MADISON’S LUNA
Exacta Box 2-5
Exacta Box 2-6
Trifecta box 2-5-6