This is a pretty wide-open turf sprint today at the Saratoga Racetrack.
No rain on the forecast means that we can confidently handicap based on the past performances but with the caveat that these are still young horses so some may have progressed since the last race.
The likely betting favorites are not particularly strong and there is uncertainty on the pace scenario. Amateurs of long shots and high-payouts have the right set-up today…
Analysis of the 7th race at the Saratoga Race Track on July 30 2018:
Number 1, CLOSER STILL is a one speed horse who should attempt to go straight for the lead. CLOSER STILL has been racing mostly on the synthetic tracks and has a poor record so far on turf, making attempts at about the same class category as today. The workouts are mild and being on the rail on the Saratoga racetrack inner turf is not very favorable so that will not help her… CLOSER STILL might make the pace hotter today but I doubt that she will go all the way.
Number 2 BRATTATA broke her maiden at the very start of her 3-years-old campaign and since then has tried the Graded and Ungraded stakes without success. One of the tries was off the turf so we can discount it. She finished third in the other two attempts on longer distances. The best races of her career have been on turf sprints so maybe cutting back in distance can help. BRATTATA likes to come from behind though and with the short race and uncertain early pace in front of her, that’s not the best setup. The workouts are good and the trainer is having a great Saratoga season so far though. She probably is primed but I don’t think that the pace scenario and race conditions are great and at 4-1 morning line odds it is a pass in my opinion.
Number 3, FACTOROFWON has an ungraded stakes win in her history but it came two trainers ago… The repeated switching of trainers is strange but she is now in the hand of a turf specialist so maybe that will help. The jockeys and trainers of FACTOROFWON have had trouble figuring out what her best pace style is, so there is no telling how she will go today. But considering that her best performances came from behind, I think she will be patient today. On paper, the class level is probably there and if the trainer has finally figured her out, she can improve a lot. At 8-1 morning line odds, she is a valid choice in the exotic bets at least.
Number 4, MOMINOU broke her Maiden this year coming from behind but since then has raced to the lead (or tried to) every time. Today, she probably have some opposition for the lead and there is the question of class too… MOMINOU has never run in this category and she was not really dominating the lower class either… She also failed to grab the lead last out and weakened in the stretch despite a reasonable pace. With a mild workout since the last race, it is not sure that she will be in much better form today. MOMINOU is the likely favorite in this race and I don’t think she really deserves it.
Number 5 TESORA is making only her second start of the year and will cut back in distance for this one. She has a young trainer but one who seems to know his stuff so maybe she will be doing better today. The workouts are not so great for this one but she trained this way for her debut so maybe the trainer just likes to extend the horses on race day only. We do not know much about TESORA which is a double-edged sword… There is no telling how good she can become or if she could have progressed and do great today. At 12-1 morning line odds, a relatively favorable post position, a trusted jockey on board and some weak favorites, I think that having TESORA in the exotic bets is a home run attempt. Once in a while, that works.
Number 6, CLASSY DANCER has tried a few distances but has not excelled in her 3-years-old campaign. She mostly tried to go for the lead in her races but that has been more successful for her in routes. She just does not have a lot of early speed and in a sprint she might just be left behind. Her trainer is doing well lately so that’s a positive but with multiple losses at the class level and the race distance and racetrack schizophrenia, I think that the connections have just a hard time figuring her out… I think she has a chance in this open race but I prefer others.
Number 7 ORIGINATOR was given a longer than usual rest and probably her trainer had his eyes on this very race for the filly. There is one very sharp workout to note and the rest was probably maintenance work. ORIGINATOR gets put in the hands of one of the best turf jockeys at Saratoga which would be more of a factor on longer distance but still is a nice plus. She has not won at this class level so it is not sure she has what is needed to win it but on paper she has a chance in this field and I like her on the podium.
Number 8 FLASHLY is making only her second start after a win on first asking and of course going straight for a stakes race is a ballsy move by the trainer but he has pulled it off in the past. FLASHLY does come from a good family too and has a millionaire making half sister. The outside post position is a plus at Saratoga so FLASHLY gets a little bump but so little is known on her that it is hard to make any comment. At long enough odds and against this field, why not…
Number 9 LADY SUEBEE is another horse which has tried a few different things and seems to be hard to pin down for the connections… She started in dirt sprints and broke her maiden there but got switch to turf where she won on first asking but maybe a bit helped by the inside track at Belmont Park. The next try was less successful, at this class level, but maybe switching to a route was not so wise. LADY SUEBEE has some hot workouts and a hot trainer. The outside post position is a plus at Saratoga so there are some things to like but I would need more than 5-1 odds to include her in my bets.
Number 10 BROADWAY RUN lost a close race to Mominou a couple months back but she had the harder trip so maybe Mominou was not so much better. It is only the third start of BROADWAY RUN and she was given a bit of a rest where she posted very strong workouts. The trainer won a similar race here at Saratoga two years ago so maybe he had his eyes on this one. The pedigree is not bad and at three years of age, a horse can progress nicely in two months. Based on the performance against Mominou last out, I think that BROADWAY RUN deserves respect and the betting public might let her go out at long odds today.
CONCLUSION:
The race is hard to pin down, especially considering the fact that multiple horses might be switching pace strategy for this one… I believe that the best bet is to swing for the fences with some longer odds horses combined on exotic tickets.
On the Saratoga inner turf racetrack, you don’t want to be too far back in the stretch and it is generally better to have started from an outside post position.
BROADWAY RUN has a loss against today’s likely betting favorite but it was close and with an easier trip, maybe she could have had the upper hand. With a very short resume so far and a 2 months gap since the last race, it is very possible that she has progressed and can do well today. The very sharp workouts are certainly pointing to that.
FACTOROFWON has shown early speed and can come from behind so I hope that she can stay close to the pace and reach the podium. She switches trainers and jockey for the better and she can probably improve a lot.
ORIGINATOR failed in her only try at this class level but it was not a bad race and she apparently is sharp for this one. The odds on her should not be too bad and she has a decent chance in this race
TESORA is another one who could have progressed and will go out at long odds. Considering the opposition today, if she indeed has improved she might be able to reach the podium.
JULY 30 SARATOGA RACETRACK RACE 7 BETTING PICKS:
Exacta Box 10-3-7
Trifecta Box 10-3-7
Superfecta Box 10-3-7-5