The last race of the day at Saratoga is the Glens Falls Stakes, a long route race on the inner turf track for the girls.
On the Saratoga turf inner track, it helps to have some early speed and an inside post position but no horse in the field really has both these traits.
It should be a waiting game and I expect that the favorite will have a hard job making up all the ground in the stretch.
It could be another short priced horse who manages to take that win despite the favorite’s class and efforts.
Analysis and picks for the 12th race at Saratoga on September 1 2018:
Number 1, SUMMERSAULT goes back to the Graded stakes class level after yet another extended vacation. That’s a bit of a concern, especially because she was beat by a couple of today’s opponents in that last race and she has not been training very well since. In that last race, SUMMERSAULT had the perfect trip so I don’t see any excuse why she would have the best of her two opponents Savannah Belle and Homeland Security today, not even speaking about the other major threats.
Number 2 SAVANNAH BELLE, finished second to Homeland Security in their last race together and SAVANNAH BELLE had the worst trip of the two yet was not savagely beaten. Since that race, SAVANNAH BELLE competed in another ungraded stakes and fared very poorly but note that the race was forced on the dirt which is not her preferred surface. Still, it looks like SAVANNAH BELLE is out of her class here, having been offered for sale at $35000 only 6 months ago.
Number 3, ONTHEMOONAGAIN will make her second start in America and she has been working out well for this one. She did not impress a lot in her first race in the USA but she had a nightmare trip and the second race is usually better. ONTHEMOONAGAIN was competing at this class level in France and did not embarrass herself which is good considering that the turf competition is a lot tougher over there. Based on trainer patterns and her provenance, I think that ONTHEMOONAGAIN has a good chance and could go out at interesting odds.
Number 4, DANCELAND likes Saratoga and has a very good record here, though on shorter distance. She won here last month but at a lower class level but she had been saving ground the whole way in that one. She did beat Onthemoonagain but the latter had a terrible trip. DANCELAND has not been performing well the only time she tried the higher class races and today it is a much higher class than she has ever attempted. I think it will be hard for her today.
Number 5 SANTA MONICA is the favorite today and a good reason for that is that she is the only one to have ever won at this class level. She rallied from last in that one to beat a decent bunch and almost pulled off the same thing in May on today’s distance. SANTA MONICA took a bit of a break leading to this race and maybe her top trainer had his eyes set on this very race. She has been working out very well leading to it at least. A potential issue for her will be the lack of pace as there does not seem to be a lot of speedster in this race. But still, she seems to be well above this field in class.
Number 6, HOMELAND SECURITY, last ran about 2 months ago and beat two of today’s opponents but not severely and given how easy that trip was, I don’t think that it is much to brag about. HOMELAND SECURITY always takes long breaks between races and rarely trains very hard in the workouts so maybe she is pretty fit. She does work for the most successful Saratoga trainer this season so that’s a plus and she has a top jockey on board. Still, based on class, I am not sure that I like HOMELAND SECURITY’s chances at relatively low odds.
Number 7, LA MANTA GRIS has been struggling of late and yet today she makes a big class jump to a Grade 2 race. She won last year on the Saratoga inner turf track at this distance but not at this same class level and that was actually her last win… Since, LA MANTA GRIS has tried a few different tracks and a few different class levels and failed every time. It would be quite a surprise seeing her win today.
Number 8, LADY MONTDORE won on first asking after moving to the USA from France but apparently, she had a bit of trouble after the race and that’s a concern. She trained only once since the race and it was a pretty dull workout, so it is anyone’s guess if she feels better now. In any case, LADY MONTDORE does not start from a very good post position and with her class and health in question, it is probably better to just watch her race today.
Number 9, LAND MINE has been scratched.
CONCLUSION:
There is very little early speed in this race and we could therefore have a little bit of a surprise in the stretch as the favorite usually comes from way behind. With that racing style, it helps to have a bit of pace.
Still there is no denying that SANTA MONICA appears to be a notch above everyone in terms of class and unless she faces a lot of traffic, I expect her to be fighting for the top spot of the podium and might very well get it.
But because of this lack of pace, I think that another horse with solid credentials could create a mild upset. ONTHEMOONAGAIN will most likely progress from her first start and I expect the betting publich to overlook her slightly given that she is a relative unknown and has a bad running line in her last race. I think that there will be more value betting on ONTHEMOONAGAIN.
SEPTEMBER 1 SARATOGA RACETRACK RACE 12 BETTING PICKS:
WIN BET at 5-2 or more on Number 3 ONTHEMOONAGAIN
Exacta Box 3-5