The MLB postseason started with ten teams, and now we are down to the final four. Tonight the American League Championship Series gets underway in Houston as the Astros take on the Boston Red Sox, while the National League Championship Series matchup between the Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers opens tomorrow night. The Astros enter the ALCS as a -146 favorite at FanDuel Sportsbook, while the Red Sox are +124 to win the AL pennant.
Outside of their respective fanbases, there may not be a lot of love for either of these teams or this particular matchup. If you’re reading this, then you know enough to know some of the reasons why, so feel free to scroll on past this section. But the Astros are in the ALCS for a fifth straight season, throwing ice cold water on the adage that cheaters never prosper. Speaking of said adage, the Red Sox are prospering again under a manager who played a key role in said cheating, who is in his first year back on the job after his “mutual departure”, season-long suspension, and prompt rehiring after Boston’s disastrous 2020 season.
But purely from a baseball standpoint, this is a matchup between two of MLB’s most productive offenses, so we could be in for an entertaining series between the AL’s two most recent World Series winners.
Let’s take a look at the important odds for this ALCS showdown.
Boston Red Sox vs Houston Astros American League Championship Series Schedule and Odds
2021 ALCS Schedule
- Friday, October 15: Boston Red Sox at Houston Astros (Game 1), FOX, 8:07 p.m. ET
- Saturday, October 16: Boston Red Sox at Houston Astros (Game 2), FOX/Fox Sports 1, 4:20 p.m. ET
- Monday, October 18: Houston Astros at Boston Red Sox (Game 3), Fox Sports 1, 8:07 p.m. ET
- Tuesday, October 19: Houston Astros at Boston Red Sox (Game 4), Fox Sports 1, time TBD
- Wednesday, October 20: Houston Astros at Boston Red Sox (Game 5), Fox Sports 1, time TBD (if necessary)
- Friday, October 22: Boston Red Sox at Houston Astros (Game 6), Fox Sports 1, time TBD (if necessary)
- Saturday, October 23: Boston Red Sox at Houston Astros (Game 7), TV TBD, time TBD (if necessary)
2021 ALCS Odds
Odds to Win the ALCS
- Boston Red Sox +124
- Houston Astros -146
ALCS Series Spread
- Boston Red Sox +1.5 (-154)
- Houston Astros -1.5 (+126)
Series Total Games
- Four Games +600
- Five Games +260
- Six Games +200
- Seven Games +200
Series Correct Outcome
- Houston Astros 4-3 (+400)
- 4-2 Houston Astros (+400)
- Houston Astros 4-1 (+500)
- 4-2 Boston Red Sox (+550)
- Boston Red Sox 4-3 (+600)
- 4-1 Boston Red Sox (+650)
- Houston Astros 4-0 (+1100)
- 4-0 Boston Red Sox (+1400)
Series Score After First Three Games
- Boston Red Sox 3-0 (+850)
- 2-1 Boston Red Sox (+165)
- Houston Astros 3-0 (+440)
- 2-1 Houston Astros (+125)
Boston Red Sox vs Houston Astros ALCS odds are via FanDuel Sportsbook as of Friday, October 15, 2021 at 1:45 p.m. ET.
Boston Red Sox vs Houston Astros ALCS Series Betting Outlook
You can’t get far into discussing this series without noting each team’s offensive numbers.
First, we look at the Astros’ plate production.
2021 Houston Astros Team Hitting Statistics and Rankings
- Batting Average: .267 (1st)
- Runs: 863 (1st – 5.33 runs per game)
- Doubles: 299 (3rd)
- Home Runs: 221 (9th)
- On-Base Percentage: .339 (1st)
- Slugging Percentage: .444 (3rd)
- OPS: .783 (2nd)
No team has been better at doing damage no matter the venue than the Astros. Only the Astros and Dodgers have averaged five or more runs per game both at home and on the road, and the Astros posted better numbers than the Dodgers on both counts.
Let’s take a look at Boston’s offensive output.
2021 Boston Red Sox Team Hitting Statistics and Rankings
- Batting Average: .261 (3rd)
- Runs: 829 (5th – 5.12 runs per game)
- Doubles: 330 (1st)
- Home Runs: 221 (10th)
- On-Base Percentage: .328 (7th)
- Slugging Percentage: .449 (2nd)
- OPS: .777 (3rd)
While the Astros have been almost equally as dangerous at and away from Minute Maid Park, the Red Sox have been their most productive at Fenway Park. The Red Sox have averaged nearly six runs per game at home, which is tops in MLB. But on the road, they have averaged well over a run less. As it happens, the Red Sox scored six runs in each of their three postseason games so far.
So should we expect a bunch of high-scoring games in this series? In the regular season, the two teams played seven games. Only one of the four games in Houston featured double-digit runs, while two of the three games in Boston featured double-digit runs.
But both teams had three games hit double-digit runs in the ALDS, and both teams piled up the runs in their series wins. The Astros scored 31 runs in their four games against the Chicago White Sox, while the Red Sox scored all 26 of their Division Series runs in the final three games after being shutout by the Tampa Bay Rays in the opener. That production is especially notable given that the Rays and White Sox had two of the top pitching staffs in the league this season, ranking fourth and fifth in ERA, respectively.
When the Astros and Red Sox met in the 2018 ALCS, there were nine or more runs in four of the five games, and while the past doesn’t necessarily indicate anything about the present, the over should be the lean in most matchups, especially when the Astros will be without their best starting pitcher.
It’s Not All About the Bats
Pitching will have a hand in how the series pans out, however. But the Astros have lost some of the edge they have there with Lance McCullers Jr. left off of their ALCS roster after right forearm issues forced an early exit in his Game 4 start against the White Sox. McCullers had the second-best ERA among the team’s starters in the regular season and was excellent in both of his ALDS starts. With no McCullers, the Astros will turn to either Zack Greinke or Jake Odorizzi
McCullers’ absence is a big blow for Houston, but they still have the edge in most pitching matchups. The Red Sox will hope to get two starts out of Nathan Eovaldi, who will toe the rubber in Game 2. If Game 1 starter Chris Sale, who will get at least two starts, is on, then that evens things up a bit. But Sale was roughed up in his lone ALDS start and is still working back to his best.
That said, I look for the Red Sox to do enough for this series to go at least six. The 2-3-2 format means three games in Boston if the Astros don’t sweep.
Since moving to best-of-seven in 1985, 20 of the 35 ALCS series have gone at least six games. That outcome has been more prevalent recently, as 10 of the last 14 have gone that far. Again, the past doesn’t necessarily mean anything for the present, but if you are into percentages, the percentages are favorable there.
I encourage playing Game 1 on its own and then tackling series bets from there. Regardless of the outcome tonight, you will still be able to snag whatever lean you have at a reasonable price and will be going into those bets a little less blindly.
Red Sox vs Astros Best Bets
As I said, playing Game 1 on its own and then tackling series bets is the best move here, especially with the McCullers news. Given how he pitched in his two starts against the White Sox, not being able to count on him for two ALCS starts, as they likely would in a six or seven-game series, makes things more even here.
But I still like the Astros to win the series, much to the chagrin of many who wish that the Astros could be swept out of the postseason (unless you’re a conflicted Yankees fan–if you are, are you just gritting your teeth and pretending baseball doesn’t exist until the ALCS is over and then fervently root against whoever wins it?).
There’s a lot to love about how the Red Sox handled the Rays after being blanked in the series opener. But even without McCullers, I like the Astros to win it in six or seven. You can stack those two and still come out with a decent profit, especially if you take them after an Astros win in Game 1.
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