There are not many better feelings in sports betting than when a late score of some kind wins a bet. That was the case last night for bettors in the Detroit Tigers vs Tampa Bay Rays matchup, as Brett Phillips of the Rays hit a three-run homer to walk it off and make both the over and the Rays RL winners. Is more excitement in store for today’s matchup? Early MLB betting odds have the Rays as a solid favorite, with the total set at 8.5.
The Tigers had last night’s game in hand, or so they thought. They led 4-1 heading into the bottom of the ninth, but the Rays scored three in that frame to send the game to extras. And after the Tigers were held scoreless in the top of the 10th, Phillips sent Rays fans–and bettors–home happy with his game-winning blast.
It was the Rays’ 44th comeback win of the season, and it moved them one step closer to clinching homefield advantage for both the ALDS and ALCS. It also moved them another step closer to winning back-to-back AL East titles for the first time in franchise history.
Will they take another step today, or will the Tigers shake off last night’s disappointment to even up the series?
Detroit Tigers (70-78) vs Tampa Bay Rays (92-56), MLB Network, 4:10 p.m. ET
Probable Pitchers
- Detroit Tigers: Tarik Skubal (8-12, 4.60 ERA)
- Tampa Bay Rays: Ryan Yarbrough (8-5, 5.27 ERA)
Detroit Tigers vs Tampa Bay Rays MLB Betting Odds
Moneyline
- Detroit Tigers +154
- Tampa Bay Rays -184
Total
- OVER 8.5 (-104)
- UNDER 8.5 (-118)
Run Line
- Detroit Tigers +1.5 (-130)
- Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (+108)
Detroit Tigers vs Tampa Bay Rays odds are via FanDuel Sportsbook as of Saturday, September 18, 2021 at 10:40 a.m. ET. Want to see betting odds from several top online sportsbooks for the day’s other MLB matchups? Check out our MLB odds.
Detroit Tigers vs Tampa Bay Rays MLB Betting Consensus
Moneyline
- 40% Detroit Tigers
- 60% Tampa Bay Rays
Total (at O/U 8.5)
- 80% OVER 8.5
- 20% UNDER 8.5
Run Line (at +/-1.5)
- 80% Detroit Tigers
- 20% Tampa Bay Rays
Detroit Tigers vs Tampa Bay Rays Matchup: MLB Betting Picks, Odds, Stats and More
Detroit Tigers vs Tampa Bay Rays Betting Outlook
The Tigers may be headed to a fifth straight losing season, which will be the second-longest streak of losing seasons in their history. But they have also already secured their most wins since 2016, and there are some positive signs for the future.
Young pitchers Skubal and Casey Mize are two of those signs, and both have shown a lot of promise this season. But with the future in mind, both pitchers are on innings restrictions for the remainder of the season. That is a factor to consider for totals bets, as the Tigers have one of the worst bullpen ERAs in the majors (4.60, 23rd in MLB).
Four runs wasn’t enough for the Tigers last night, but they will be hoping to generate a little more offense today against Yarbrough, who has been hit hard in September. In two September outings, Yarbrough has allowed 18 hits and 14 runs in only 4.1 innings. That comes out to an ERA of 29.08, which has moved his season ERA from 4.50 to 5.27.
Even if Yarbrough has a better outing than his last two, the odds are high that we will see plenty of runs. In the 20 games that Yarbrough has started this season, there have been double-digit combined runs 14 times. Four of the six times it hasn’t happened occurred in a row in July, but other than that, runs have been the norm.
MLB Betting Trends to Consider for Detroit Tigers vs Tampa Bay Rays
- The Rays lead the league in runs per game, averaging 5.36 runs per game. At home, the Rays average five runs per game, which is 8th in the league.
- The Tigers rank a respectable 15th in the league in runs per game on the road, coming in at an average of 4.55 runs per game. That outpaces their production at home, as they average 4.16 runs per game at Comerica Park.
- Overs have been frequent in Rays games after a win in their previous game. In that spot, the over is 53-32-6. Only the Diamondbacks, who are tied for the fewest wins in the majors, have had a better hit percentage (31-14-2).
- When playing on the same amount of rest, the over is 76-54-5 in Rays games this season. Only the Minnesota Twins (76-53-7) have a better hit percentage in this spot.
- When the Rays play on no rest, the over is 68-50-8 in their games. That is the highest hit rate in the league.
Detroit Tigers vs Tampa Bay Rays Best Bets
Detroit Tigers vs Tampa Bay Rays OVER 8.5
It took extras for the over to hit last night, but that is not likely to be the case today. I like the value in this play even if the number went up to 9. It seems unlikely to based on the way things look at the moment, so you should only need nine runs to come away a winner instead of another double-digit day at the Trop.
