By the end of Thursday night, the Atlanta Braves could either be NL East champions for the fourth year in a row or on the verge of it. At the same time, if things go the opposite way in their massive matchup with the Philadelphia Phillies, they could be staring at a tense final series against the New York Mets. With a 2.5 game lead atop the division, MLB betting odds heavily favor the Braves sealing the deal from here. But it is still far from certain, and a win in tonight’s series opener could set the Phillies on the right course.
There have been multiple times over the last few weeks where it seemed like the Braves were going to relinquish control of the division. Each time they have held on, however. Most recently, they appeared to be in serious trouble on Friday night. Atlanta’s three-game lead on Thursday had been trimmed to one, and the Phillies had a more favorable weekend matchup.
But the Braves shook off a tough loss in the finish of a resumed game in San Diego, thanks to a Friday night gem by Max Fried, an 10-inning win on Saturday, and a one-run win on Sunday. And thanks to the Pirates nicking a win off of the Phillies on Sunday, the Braves were able to end the weekend better than where they started it.
The division is not theirs just yet, but if the Braves win tonight, the Phillies would have almost no margin for error over their final five games.
Philadelphia Phillies (81-75) vs Atlanta Braves (83-72), Fox Sports 1, 7:20 p.m. ET
Probable Pitchers
- Philadelphia Phillies: Zack Wheeler (14-9, 2.79 ERA)
- Atlanta Braves: Charlie Morton (13-6, 3.53 ERA)
Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves MLB Betting Odds
Moneyline
- Philadelphia Phillies +110
- Atlanta Braves -130
Total
- OVER 8 (-102)
- UNDER 8 (-120)
Run Line
- Philadelphia Phillies +1.5 (-200)
- Atlanta Braves -1.5 (+164)
Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves odds are via FanDuel Sportsbook as of Tuesday, September 28, 2021 at 4:10 p.m. ET. Want to see MLB betting odds from several top online sportsbooks for each MLB matchup every day? Check out our MLB odds.
Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves MLB Betting Consensus
Moneyline
- 40% Philadelphia Phillies
- 60% Atlanta Braves
Total (at O/U 7.5)
- 100% OVER 7.5
- 0% UNDER 7.5
Run Line (at +/-1.5)
- 80% Philadelphia Phillies +1.5
- 20% Atlanta Braves -1.5
Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves Matchup: MLB Betting Picks, Odds, Stats and More
Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves Betting Outlook
Sunday’s loss to the Pirates was a huge blow for the Phillies, but they have their ace on the hill for their biggest game of the season. And Wheeler comes into tonight in fine form in September. In four starts this month, he is 3-0 with a 1.14 ERA. It may be too late for him to make up ground in the NL Cy Young race, but he can provide a big boost for the Phillies’ postseason hopes tonight.
For the season, Wheeler has fared well against the Braves overall, save for his one start at Truist Park. In four starts, he is 2-1 with a 1.35 ERA. But his previous start in Atlanta was one of his shortest of the season. On April 9, he allowed three runs, seven hits, and four walks in 4.2 innings in an 8-1 loss. To date, that is one of only two times this season that Wheeler has failed to reach the five-inning mark.
Whether or not the Phillies win the NL East, Bryce Harper looks likely to win his second NL MVP award. Fernando Tatis Jr. was the MLB betting favorite after Jacob deGrom went down, but Harper has overhauled him and now has a healthy edge over Tatis and Juan Soto. To add a few more lines to his resume, Harper will need to improve some poor numbers against the Braves. In 16 games against Atlanta, he is hitting .228 (13 for 57) with three homers and three RBI.
In fact, Harper has only had success against one NL East team this season. Unsurprisingly, it’s his former team, the Washington Nationals. In 18 games against the Nats, he hit .403 with seven homers and 14 RBI. Against the rest of the NL East, he is hitting .228 (34 for 149) in 43 games.
Morton, Braves Look to Take Big Step Toward Division Title
Morton hasn’t put up the numbers that Wheeler has, but his return to Atlanta has been a positive one for him and the franchise. With two starts left, he still has a chance to reach the 15-win mark for the third time in the last three full seasons.
Morton missed out on win #14 last Thursday at Arizona, as he ran into some trouble in the seventh after six excellent innings. A five-spot in that frame for the Diamondbacks turned a 4-1 deficit into a 6-4 lead, depriving the Braves of a four-game sweep.
Braves manager Brian Snitker has made some questionable decisions this season, and there are a lot of (colorful) words that can be written on Atlanta’s bullpen. But Morton has done well this season when he’s pitched into the seventh and when he has hit the 100-pitch mark, so there can be some defense for the choice to keep him in for the seventh, especially when you consider the aforementioned bullpen.
Morton is 2-2 with a 3.06 ERA in four starts against the Phillies this season, and he outdueled Wheeler in their matchup in Atlanta in April. However, the Braves have not won in any of his five home starts after the All-Star break. This is despite four of those starts being quality starts. Overall, the Braves are 3-7 in the last ten games Morton has started. In that stretch, he has eight quality starts and a 3.15 ERA.
MLB Betting Trends to Consider for Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves
- Both the Braves and Phillies are 40-30 in division games this season.
- The Braves are 12-8 following one day of rest.
- The Phillies are 7-13 following one day of rest.
- In the season series, the Phillies hold a 9-7 lead. The Braves are 4-2 at home, while the Phillies are 7-3 at home.
Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves Best Bet
Atlanta Braves 1st 5 ML
Given how the Braves have struggled for wins in Morton’s recent starts, despite him pitching well, fading the Braves or avoiding this game altogether might make the most sense.
But Morton pitching well is why there’s a lot of value in making this move. Even a couple of early runs for the Braves could be enough for them to have a lead after five if Morton is on his game. This is a lot less risky than backing the Braves for the full game. After all, the bullpen closed out the Padres in their last at-bat Saturday and Sunday, and asking them to do it three times in a row without a blowup just seems like tempting fate.
The number is at -110 at the time of writing, while the three-way line has the Braves at +120, and Braves -0.5 for the first five innings is +130. If you want to maximize your value, the latter option is the move.
