With both the San Francisco Giants and Los Angeles Dodgers clinching playoff spots, one of the NL’s two wild-card spots is already accounted for. The other one, however, is very much up for grabs. Heading into the season, the New York Mets were one of the leading MLB betting favorites to win the NL pennant. But their hopes of even reaching the postseason are barely hanging on, and the Cardinals could all but finish them off and enhance their own hopes by finishing off a sweep tonight at Citi Field.
It wasn’t all that long ago that the Cardinals’ chances were not in a positive position. But both the Cincinnati Reds and San Diego Padres have failed to pull away, and the Cardinals have capitalized. With six wins in seven games, including the first two of their series in the Big Apple, the Cardinals now hold a half-game lead over the Reds and lead the Padres by a game.
It should be no surprise that the Cardinals are here, despite their up and down season. After all, the Cardinals have had only one losing season since 1999 and are in the playoff picture more often than not. But this is the most games above .500 that the Cardinals have been since June 1, when they were 31-24.
Jon Lester is no stranger to pitching in important games, and he has proven to be a solid acquisition for the Cardinals since being picked up from the Washington Nationals before July’s trade deadline. He enters tonight’s matchup off of his best start with the Cardinals, while Mets starter Tyler Megill is coming off of his best MLB start.
Will the Cardinals all but extinguish the Mets’ flickering postseason hopes, or will Megill muster up another gem to keep the Mets in the mix?
St. Louis Cardinals (75-69) vs New York Mets (72-74), SNY, 7:10 p.m. ET
Probable Pitchers
- St. Louis Cardinals: Jon Lester
- New York Mets: Tyler Megill
St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Mets MLB Betting Odds
Moneyline
- St. Louis Cardinals +150
- New York Mets -178
Total
- OVER 8.5 (-106)
- UNDER 8.5 (-114)
Run Line
- St. Louis Cardinals +1.5 (-140)
- New York Mets -1.5 (+116)
St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Mets odds are via FanDuel Sportsbook as of Wednesday, September 15, 2021 at 5:45 p.m. ET. Want to see betting odds from several top online sportsbooks for the day’s other MLB matchups? Check out our MLB odds.
St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Mets MLB Betting Consensus
Moneyline
- 60% St. Louis Cardinals
- 40% New York Mets
Total (at O/U 8.5)
- 60% St. Louis Cardinals
- 40% New York Mets
Run Line (at +/-1.5)
- 100% St. Louis Cardinals +1.5
- 0% New York Mets -1.5
St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Mets Matchup: MLB Betting Picks, Odds, Stats and More
St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Mets Betting Outlook
You do have to give the Mets some credit for the fight they put up in last night’s 7-6 loss. But fight isn’t always enough, and it wasn’t last night. The Mets led early, led later, and then forced extras on a Javy Baez homer in the ninth. But they couldn’t match the Cardinals’ three-spot in the top of the 11th, leaving the tying run stranded on second. For the Mets, it was their fifth loss in seven games. But for the Cardinals, it was their fourth win in a row.
If there is anything for the Mets to be encouraged about, it’s that they are scoring some runs. In addition to last night’s six runs, they scored 24 runs in their Subway Series matchup with the Yankees.
Unfortunately, their timing has coincided with the Cardinals having an offensive awakening themselves. The first two games of this series mark only the fourth time this season that the Cardinals have recorded seven or more runs in consecutive games. If they repeat the feat tonight, it would be the first time all season that they have done so in three straight.
That might be tough work against Megill, who had a career-best start last time out. Against the Yankees last Friday, the rookie righty allowed two runs, four hits, and a walk and struck out a career-high ten in a 10-3 win. In nine home starts, Megill is 3-1 with a 3.80 ERA.
Lester is coming off of a fine Friday start as well. Against the Reds, he allowed only two runs and three hits in seven innings. In his last four starts, Lester is 1-0 with a 1.94 ERA. And in three road starts since joining the Cardinals, the veteran southpaw is 2-0 with a 1.58 ERA.
MLB Betting Trends to Consider for St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Mets
- The Cardinals are 28-22 covering the +1.5 as a road underdog this season.
- The Mets are 35-19 SU as a home favorite this season, but they have covered the -1.5 only 17 times in those 54 games (31.5 percent).
- The Mets have lost their last three games following an extra-inning loss in the previous game.
St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Mets Best Bets
St. Louis Cardinals +1.5 & ML
With both Lester and the Cardinals trending up and the Mets being the Mets, there is entirely too much value here to ignore. If you don’t feel comfortable jumping on the ML, the RL is worth it as well if you can get it in the -140s or better.
This is one that shouldn’t elicit too much frustration even if the Mets pull out the win tonight. The Mets, with 59 one-run games, lead the league in one-run games, coming in nine ahead of the team in second (Atlanta Braves, 50). That comes out to a shade over 40 percent of the Mets’ games this season. Additionally, the Mets have played 25 games decided by two runs. Toss those in with the one-run games, and 57.5 percent of the Mets’ games this season have been decided by one or two runs.
When you’re needing to cover the +1.5 against a team with that many close games, you should feel pretty good about your chances.
