The UFC 125 lbs. title is on the line for the second-straight PPV as Deiveson Figueiredo is set to make a quick turn around and defend his flyweight belt against Brandon Moreno in the UFC 256 main event. He successfully defended his title in the main event of UFC 255 just last month when it only took him one minute and fifty-seven seconds to submit Alex Perez.
Main Event Odds: Figueiredo (-355) vs Moreno (+270)
Deiveson Figueiredo heads into this bout as a sizable betting favorite on FanDuel for the third straight fight. Quick money came in on Figueiredo after the opening odds were set at -275 but that has since jumped all the way up to -355. With a 10-1 record in the UFC, his only loss came when he was a -175 favorite over Jussier Formiga in March of 2019.
Brandon Moreno is no stranger to being pegged as an underdog as he’s found himself in that spot in three of his last four UFC fights. He’s also never lost when his odds were plus-money, he’s 3-0-1 in his UFC career when set as the betting underdog. You can grab him at +270 at FanDuel to extend that streak this weekend when he fights for UFC gold.
Main Event Pick: Fight to go the distance +215
Despite Deiveson Figueiredo’s recent history of finishing fights, it’s surprising to see the odds set at +215 for the bout to go the full five rounds. The flyweight division is notorious for having a lack of finishes due to the low weight leading to a lack of power behind strikes.
While Figueiredo does come into the fight with four straight finishes (1 TKO, 3 SUBs), he’s going up against a guy who never been finished in his MMA career. Brandon Moreno has a record of 18-5-1, but all five his losses came from the judges scorecards including a five round non-title bout against Sergio Pettis in 2017.
Figueiredo and Moreno enter the fight with eighteen total submission victories between them, so we may see quite a few stalemates on the ground which could lead to drawn out rounds and a lengthier fight. Given that there’s not much value betting on the favorite at -355, a shot at the fight to go the distance at +215 seems too good to pass up.
Co-Main Event Pick: Tony Ferguson (-184) vs Charles Oliveira
In what might be an even more anticipated bout than the main event, Tony Ferguson (-184) is set to take on Charles Oliveira (+148) in the lightweight co-main event. This will be Ferguson’s first fight since his 12-fight win streak was snapped in May of this year when he lost via TKO to Justin Gaethje.
While both guys are masters of the submission game (combined 27 career submissions), Tony Ferguson is more effective at doing damage while on the ground. Oliveira has historically had trouble in his career when fighting opponents who can fight off submissions but also have power in their hands.
Tony Ferguson is the betting favorite for good reason. He’s the bet to make in the co-main event of UFC 256.