The NBA trade deadline was last Thursday, and we finally got a much-anticipated Ben Simmons trade. Up until a few weeks ago, it looked like that might not even happen, but as the deadline approached it seemed more and more probable with the Brooklyn Nets emerging as the likely destination with James Harden wanting to get out of Dodge.
Once the Simmons for Harden (plus others) idea hit the airwaves it seemed pretty inevitable because 76ers GM Daryl Morey was adamant about getting a superstar to pair with Joel Embiid. He knows Harden better than anyone. Mission accomplished. Maybe.
I do like this deal for the Nets a lot but at the same time, they are definitely not my favorite to win the NBA title this season.
Why Not the Nets?
Simmons does not move the needle for me. I actually think the acquisitions of Andre Drummond and Seth Curry are more impactful than the addition of a malcontent like Simmons. Drummond is one of the league’s best rebounders, and Curry is a lethal outside shooter.
For a player his size, Simmons is extremely athletic, which has a lot of value. But until he develops an ability to shoot from anywhere on the floor with confidence, he is a liability in the most important moments.
Simmons could not make it work with the Sixers, as he was supposed to be the second option but bristled. I wonder how he is going to feel in Brooklyn where he is the #3 option at best. He can get better but he is not the key to a championship as is.
Availability is a Key Ability for the Nets
Kevin Durant is the best scorer in the NBA. He has also not played a game since January 15th and is not expected back on the court until late February at the earliest.
The simple fact is that Durant is injury prone and with the team they have now, they are even more dependent on him than ever. That is one of the many reasons Brooklyn is not a team to jump on right now.
Mercurial guard Kyrie Irving is hardly a bastion of health either and his refusal to vaccinate makes his availability for some games an issue. Even if they try and plan accordingly, his absences put an extra burden on other players. That is not conducive toward the Nets winning the NBA championship this season.
Durant and Irving are pure scorers so when one or both are unavailable it gets pretty ugly. Just take a look at the Nets' recent run of 11 consecutive losses to see how bad it can get. One player who could crank things up is actually the player they just traded away.
Bucks, Suns Among 2022 NBA Title Contenders with Better Betting Value Than Nets
The top five favorites to win the 2022 NBA title are
- Golden State Warriors +450
- Phoenix Suns +450
- Brooklyn Nets +550
- Milwaukee Bucks +550
- Philadelphia 76ers +700
Odds are via BetMGM as of Thursday, February 17.
To be honest I like all of these other teams better than I like Brooklyn right now. That includes the two teams who met in last season’s NBA Finals, the Milwaukee Bucks and Phoenix Suns.
Don’t Doubt the Champs
I really like the subtle move Milwaukee made in picking up big man Serge Ibaka to give them some quality minutes at the five spot. When he is right, he can help space the floor and play good team defense and rebound. Plus, he has championship experience from his time with Toronto.
The value with Milwaukee is pretty wild right now. I know repeating as champs is tough to do but beyond that I am not sure why they are not priced right there with the Suns and Warriors.
As long as Giannis, Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday are in form heading into the playoffs they are going to be very tough to beat. They would be my favorite in the Eastern Conference right now.
Until the Nets can beat the Bucks when it counts, I am sticking with the champs.
Sizzling Suns Better Than Last Year
When the Suns picked up point guard Chris Paul before last season nobody predicted that they would be heading to the NBA Finals months later. He had never been there before, and Phoenix had a nice roster not a championship one.
This season Phoenix has firmly established themselves as the best team in the league and they are probably better than last year’s team that came so close thanks to the development of Mikal Bridges, who can be a much more forceful scorer than he has been in the past. All of the pieces are there, and they have NBA Finals experience to tap into now.
Are the Healthy Warriors a Serious Title Threat?
Coming into the season the narrative for the Warriors was to wait until shooter Klay Thompson gets healthy and then let's see what this Warriors team is all about. They were having lots of success without him early, so much so that Andrew Wiggins is now an All-Star.
Now we are waiting for defensive stopper Draymond Green to get back to good health so we can see what the ceiling is for the Warriors with him, Klay, and Steph Curry. They are a few seasons from their last title, but I am not totally sure they are not good enough to win another. Look for them to add some bulk on the buyout market too.
I love the experience of this group. We know they are willing to pay the price.
Will It Work in Philly?
I am not sold on Philadelphia putting themselves in the best place to win a title this season just because they have Harden. Per the above, I liked the contributions they were getting from Curry and Drummond, especially with the big man giving them options for how fresh they can keep Embiid down the stretch and into the playoffs.
If Harden and Embiid find a way to be elite together, there is more than enough around them. I am more willing to bet on that happening than Brooklyn answering all of their questions.
