The Golden State Warriors and Milwaukee Bucks meet on the NBA‘s loaded Christmas Day slate at 2:30 ET PM with the Bucks currently poised as massive 10-point favorites.
The Warriors are looking for a return to prominence this season. They suffered a brutal blow on the day of the draft with star shooting guard Klay Thompson going down for the season. It was his return and that of MVP point guard Steph Curry that was supposed to lead them back to relevance in the Western Conference.
In Milwaukee, they are hoping roster changes will lead to more playoff success. In some ways what they do in the regular season is irrelevant as they have finished tops in the Eastern Conference the last two years only to be upset in the playoffs. They have now maxed out on two-time concurrent MVP Giannis Antetokoumpo and need a title to make that investment worthwhile.
Both Teams Looking to Avoid 0-2 Starts to Season
The Warriors and Bucks both lost their season openers. The Dubs looked terrible in their loss at Brooklyn. Steph Curry looked very lonely out there and their defense had no answer for Nets stars Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant.
The Bucks, meanwhile, started on the road at Boston, losing by a point after Jayson Tatum hit a game-winning shot. Jrue Holiday was the big offseason get and he looked good in his Milwaukee debut, scoring 25 points. Giannis had 35 and Khris Middleton had 27. Their big three all played well and they still lost. It is just one game but you can bet they were hoping it would be more convincing that their offseason moves might get them over the hump.
Golden State Warriors vs Milwaukee Bucks Betting Preview:
Spread: Warriors +10 (-110) | Bucks -10 (-110)
Moneyline: Warriors +420 | Bucks -560
Total: Over 232.5 (-110) | Under 232.5 (-110)
Odds via FanDuel as of Thursday, December 24 (12:30 PM ET)
Breaking down the Spread
Even though the Bucks lost their opener this line has gone up a couple of points since it opened. That loss by the Warriors was embarrassing and it’s going to be harder to get things on track in a second road game against a quality team like Milwaukee. Golden State might have actually been a better bet if the Bucks had won their opener like they were supposed to (they were 4.5-point favorites vs the Celtics). Maybe the Bucks would have been a little less focused.
In breaking down the game the Warriors could be in big trouble. Curry will have to catch fire most nights for them to score enough points to win and there is nothing we saw that indicated they are going to be anything but an average defensive team at best. Forward Draymond Green did not play in the opener and he is questionable for this one too. His absence is felt even more significantly against an elite talent like Giannis.
Even if Green is in the lineup I just don’t see how the Warriors can either keep pace or slow down the Bucks enough to stay close. Maybe they find a way to compete this season but they are definitely not there yet.
Betting Advice: Take Milwaukee -9.5 or use the Bucks in a moneyline parlay
Breaking Down the Total
While the spread went up a little, the total has come down from its opening number. Given that the Bucks looked pretty good scoring the ball against Boston in a game that went over pretty easily this move has to be motivated by what we saw from Golden State.
They just can’t score the way they used to and now might be the time to pound some of those Unders because the markets generally correct more gradually. After Curry and maybe Andrew Wiggins there is no player on the Warriors you have to guard closely. Milwaukee will get theirs but it just won’t be enough to push the total high enough.
Betting Advice: Take under 232
Score Prediction: Milwaukee 118 – Golden State 104
You might want to look at team totals here too, especially the Under on Golden State.