I love the Texas Tech underdog narrative, but Baylor and Kansas are the top two teams in the Big 12. All you have to do is look at KenPom, where they are 4th and 5th respectively.
Kansas is at the top of the Big 12 standings, but Baylor can keep the pressure on if they can get a win at home on Saturday. The first time these teams met Kansas dominated at home so whether they catch them or not, a little revenge would be sweet for the Bears.
This game could also help determine which of these sure-fire NCAA Tournament teams is in line for a top seed. Both are worthy but I am not sure this is going to be a season where we get two #1s from the same conference.
Kansas Jayhawks vs. Baylor Bears College Basketball Matchup Info and Betting Odds
Matchup Information
- Game Matchup: Kansas Jayhawks (23-4, 12-2 Big 12, 1st in Big 12) vs. Baylor Bears (23-5, 11-4 Big 12, 2nd in Big 12)
- Venue & Location: Ferrell Center (Waco, Texas)
- Date: Saturday, February 26, 2022
- Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
- TV: ESPN
Betting Odds
- Spread: Kansas +3.5 (-110), Baylor -3.5 (-110)
- Total: OVER 150.5 (-110), UNDER 150.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Kansas +140, Baylor -165
Odds are via BetMGM.
Could Kansas Be Even Better?
Before the season started, one of the reasons folks were so hot on Kansas were incoming transfer guards Remy Martin and Joseph Yesufu.
Martin, a scorer from Arizona State, was going to solve their lead guard problems, with some even crowning him the player of the year in the conference preseason.
Yesufu, who transferred earlier in the process from Drake, was also going to be a major upgrade at a position of need for the Jayhawks.
Neither has really provided much this season and Martin is now out indefinitely, having not played in a game since January 29th, while Yesufu is averaging two points per game in limited action.
The fact that Kansas is winning the way it is while getting next to nothing from those players is a testament to the rest of the team.
Beginning with a Player of the Year candidate in Ochai Agbaji, through Christian Braun, Jalen Wilson, and David McCormack, the Jayhawks have an experienced and talented core that is as good as any quartet of college players on any one team.
Dajuan Harris Jr. is a sophomore guard playing more than they planned to, but he is showing signs of playing with more confidence.
As they solve the lead guard spot one way or the other, Kansas can be even better than they have been, which is scary.
Baylor Changing Styles Midstream
Baylor is the defending champion and even though they have had some ups and downs they might be a good bet to make to repeat right now.
Whether they push Kansas for the regular season title or not, a recent injury has forced them to play a little differently, but with good results.
In a win over Texas on February 12th, big man Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua went down for the season. That cost the Bears their leading rebounder and hurt their depth, but at the same time it opened up playing time for two first-year players who are getting the attention of NBA draft experts.
Kendall Brown and Jeremy Sochan are not post defenders, but they are long wings who can be disruptive on defense and contribute significantly on offense and playing them more makes the Bears more versatile.
Maybe this outcome was destined as they became more comfortable with the college game. But speeding up the process has looked good so far. They are 2-1 since then (with a loss at Texas Tech, no shame there).
As those players increase their draft stock you are going to see a correlation with Baylor’s title odds dropping (currently around +1600)
With James Akinjo providing a steady hand and veterans like Adam Flagler, Matthew Mayer, LJ Cryer and Flo Thamba holding down things inside their chances look better than ever.
Kansas Jayhawks vs. Baylor Bears Basketball Prediction & Picks
Baylor 78, Kansas 70 (Baylor -3.5 & Under 150.5)
When these teams met during the season Baylor played one of its worst games of the year. Playing in Allen Fieldhouse, Kansas definitely had something to do with it, but the Bears also underperformed massively.
In that game, they made just 31 percent of their 2-point shots and 26 percent from behind the arc, both well below seasonal averages. They might have been able to keep it reasonable if the defense has been somewhat decent, but they allowed Kansas to shoot 27 of 42 (64.3 percent) on two-point shots.
As good an offensive team as Kansas is, they are not usually that good. They had three different players make all of their shots that day, each with a minimum of four attempts too so to say they were getting what they wanted was a bit of an understatement.
I am definitely looking for things to turn with this game in Waco.
Look for Baylor to pick up the pace and put pressure on Harris to be more of a scorer. He is definitely the weak link of this Kansas team and can be exploited if you have the talent to do so.
I also like Baylor to continue to play faster and faster with their preferred lineup. They have the length to be a strong rebounding team and can be murder in odd-man transition situations with the talent they put out there.
Baylor is not going to run the Jayhawks off the floor like they were at Kansas, but a comfortable win is what I am projecting.
Not Too Soon to Look Ahead to the Big 12 Tournament
The Big 12 is really top-heavy this season with Kansas, Baylor, Texas Tech, and Texas all legitimate contenders.
Right now, all of those teams are projected to be top-four seeds in the NCAA Tournament, while Kansas is the favorite to win the Big 12 Tournament in Kansas City.
Baylor (+210) and Texas Tech (+1000) to claim the tournament title might be plays to look at more closely right now. If you like Baylor, making that bet now really makes sense, unless you think they lose on Saturday and that their number will go up.
