It has been four years since Florida last beat rival Kentucky in Gainesville. If the Gators can end that run to close out the regular season, they will deny Kentucky a possible share of the SEC regular season title and potentially secure an NCAA Tournament berth with it.
After starting SEC play 0-3, Florida has turned things around to enter their regular season finale above .500 in the conference. But the Gators’ hopes of making the field of 68 are very much up in the air ahead of their showdown with the Wildcats. A win today might not lock up a berth, but it would position them well heading into next week’s SEC Tournament.
As for Kentucky, the Wildcats still harbor some hope of an SEC regular season title and a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. However, they need a lot of things to happen for those things to occur. First and foremost, they need to continue their recent success in Gainesville.
Kentucky vs. Florida College Basketball Matchup Info and Betting Odds
Matchup Information
- Game Matchup: #7 AP/#6 CP Kentucky Wildcats (24-6, 13-4 SEC, t-2nd in the SEC) vs. Florida Gators (19-11, 9-8 SEC, t-5th in the SEC)
- Venue & Location: Exactech Arena at Stephen C. O’Connell Center (Gainesville, Florida)
- Date: Saturday, March 5, 2022
- Time: 2:00 p.m. ET
- TV: CBS
Betting Odds
- Spread: Kentucky -4.5 (-110), Florida +4.5 (-110)
- Total: OVER 142.5 (-110), UNDER 142.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Kentucky -200, Florida +165
Odds are via BetMGM.
Florida Seeks Statement Win to Strengthen March Madness Resume
With how many NCAA Tournament bracket projections there are out there, even from top sports sites, there is no consensus on who’s in and who’s out right now.
But no matter which site you choose to trust the most, it is a fact that the Gators are in a precarious position ahead of their rivalry matchup with Kentucky.
When these two teams met in Lexington on February 12, the Gators were in the midst of a real surge, having won seven of nine after a 3-6 stretch derailed a hot start to the season. They were no match for the Wildcats in Rupp Arena in a 78-57 loss, which was the first of three losses in four games.
The lone win in that stretch is the only reason why they are not in a more precarious position. It came at home against Auburn, who was ranked second at the time. The Tigers, who lead Kentucky, Arkansas, and Tennessee by a game in the SEC standings, can clinch the SEC title outright with a home win over South Carolina.
Their opponent would love to see an unlikely upset in Auburn, but for the Gators, it would be a helpful feather in their cap to own a win over the SEC champs. It would also be helpful to own a win over Kentucky, especially when so many teams are jockeying to try to land on the right side of the bubble.
Here’s a look at Florida’s NCAA Tournament resume heading into today.
March Madness Resume for the Florida Gators
- NET: 51
- Strength of Schedule: 49 (via KenPom)
- Road Record: 4-6
- Quadrant 1 Record: 2-8
- Quality Wins: vs. Ohio State (neutral site), vs. Auburn
- Bad Losses: vs. Texas Southern (by 15), at Ole Miss (by 16)
With an underwhelming resume, Florida cannot afford to both lose to Kentucky and exit the SEC Tournament early.
But can they put in the kind of performance needed to score the upset of the Wildcats?
The Gators do head into this matchup with back-to-back road wins over Georgia and Vanderbilt. And after hitting the 80-point mark only once in their first 15 SEC games (vs. Mississippi State), UF scored 84 against Georgia and 82 against Vanderbilt.
Improved shooting was key to both of those wins, especially from the perimeter.
Shooting Percentages for Florida for the 2021-22 Season vs. Percentages vs. Georgia & Vanderbilt
- Field Goal Percentage for the 2021-22 Season: 42.9% (tied for 251st in Division I)
- Three-Point Field Goal Percentage for the 2021-22 Season: 31.6% (tied for 287th in Division I)
- Field Goal Percentage vs. Georgia: 51.7% (31 of 60)
- Three-Point Field Goal Percentage vs. Georgia: 45.2% (14 of 31)
- Field Goal Percentage vs. Vanderbilt: 51.7% (30 of 58)
- Three-Point Field Goal Percentage vs. Vanderbilt: 47.4% (10 of 21)
Quality production from guards Tyree Appleby, Phlandrous Fleming Jr., and Myreon Jones was key to both wins. They are Florida’s second, third, and fourth-leading scorers behind big man Colin Castleton (16.1 PPG, 9.0 RPG, 2.5 BPG) and will need to play a big role against Kentucky on Senior Day.
Against Georgia, the trio combined for 61 points on 55 percent shooting (22 of 40) from the field and 46.2 percent shooting (12 of 26) from three. Against Vanderbilt, they combined for 41 points on 50 percent shooting (14 of 28) from the field and 50 percent (8 of 16) from three.
But Georgia and Vandy are two of SEC’s poorer teams, and Kentucky is one of the best in the country. And other than the win over Auburn, Florida has not been up to the task against the SEC’s better teams. In conference play, they are 1-6 against teams who were ranked at the time, including a 1-3 mark at the O’Connell Center.
In the first game against Kentucky, Castleton shot 8 of 12 from the field and scored 18 points. However, everyone else was 15 of 39 (38.5 percent) and scored 39 points, with no other double-figure scorers. Also, Florida was only 5 of 22 (22.7 percent) from three in that loss.
Kentucky vs. Florida Basketball Prediction and Picks
Kentucky 79, Florida 71 (Kentucky -4.5 & OVER 142.5)
Florida has had some memorable home wins over Kentucky over the years, but it is hard to see this game being added to that list.
Where Florida has struggled to win against the SEC’s top teams home or away, Kentucky has excelled against unranked foes home and away all season. To date, the Wildcats’ only loss to an unranked team this season was a four-point loss in December at Notre Dame, whose only other home loss this season is against Duke.
Few teams this season have been able to do something that even slightly resembles slowing down Wooden Award favorite Oscar Tshiebwe. But he had one of his best games of the season in the previous meeting with the Gators. In the win at Rupp Arena, he had 27 points and 19 rebounds, one of three performances this season in which he posted at least 25 points and 15 rebounds.
Tshiebwe is averaging 17.5 PPG (above his season average), 14.3 RPG, 1.8 BPG (above his season average), and 2.3 steals per game (above his season average) on the road this season. Look for him to dominate the Gators once again as Kentucky denies Florida a pivotal resume-building win.
