Cincinnati appears to be in a great spot to land in the College Football Playoff. Still, they cannot afford a week off.
UCF is not having the kind of season they were hoping for to start the Gus Malzahn era at the Bounce House. But an upset win over Cincinnati could change that.
As long as Cincinnati is undefeated, their games are going to be must-see TV. Their lines might be inflated though, which could present a buying opportunity for a potentially challenging matchup with UCF.
UCF Knights (3-2) vs Cincinnati Bearcats (5-0), ABC, 12:00 p.m. ET
UCF Knights vs Cincinnati Bearcats College Football Betting Odds
Moneyline
- UCF Knights +880
- Cincinnati Bearcats -1800
Total
- OVER 56.5 (-108)
- UNDER 56.5 (-112)
Spread
- UCF Knights +21.5 (-112)
- Cincinnati Bearcats -21.5 (-108)
UCF Knights vs Cincinnati Bearcats college football betting odds are via FanDuel Sportsbook as of Saturday, October 16, 2021 at 9:15 a.m. ET.
UCF Knights vs Cincinnati Bearcats Betting Outlook
The Knights were supposed to be the biggest threat to Cincinnati in the AAC this season. That big spread number and an 0-2 road record are just two indicators that this is probably not the case. Also, QB Dillon Gabriel has been out since the Louisville game due to a broken clavicle, which has pushed freshman Mikey Keene into action.
Malzahn has definitely balanced the offense this year, but it is hard to know whether that is by design or just playing to the team’s strengths. The rumor is that Joey Gatewood, who was with the coach at Auburn, is going to get the start under center this week. His strength is definitely running the ball, but no matter who is directing the offense getting results against Cincinnati is going to be difficult.
UCF could afford to be defensively deficient when they were among the most explosive teams in college football, but that is not what they are right now. When facing a legitimate opponent the Knights have not been able to hold them under 3o points. They likely have to do that to keep this game close enough down the stretch. We will know early on how they can or can’t compete with Cincinnati.
Cincinnati Gets Nice Window To Show Us More
The Bearcats look like they are right where they need to be, and with top teams dropping every week, they might be able to rise even higher than their current #3 ranking. It’s almost too good to be true.
They are at home for this one, and that is probably a good thing because things can get wacky when the Knights host in Orlando. The Bearcats aren’t necessarily explosive but they did just rough up Temple in a 52-3 win. With veteran QB Desmond Ridder at the controls, they just seem to never be in a bad spot on offense. The yardage numbers are not impressive, but they are averaging 41 points per game, which is ninth in the nation.
Cincinnati’s defense, which is one of the best in college football, sets them up well also. Sure, there are going to be more NFL-bound players at places like Georgia and Ohio State, but they are giving up just 12 points per game. Only one of their opponents has scored more than two touchdowns.
The Knights have enough talent to challenge the Bearcats, but as long as this group continues doing what it is doing there is a lot to like about Cincinnati. They just don’t let you move the ball, and that lets them control the game.
College Football Betting Trends to Consider for UCF Knights vs Cincinnati Bearcats
- UCF is 39-17 ATS in their last 56 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
- The Knights are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games following an ATS loss.
- The Knights are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games on FieldTurf.
- Cincinnati is 7-0 ATS in their last seven games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- The Bearcats are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- The Bearcats are 4-0 ATS in their last four games in October.
UCF Knights vs Cincinnati Bearcats Best Bet
UCF +21.5
I am loving Cincinnati as a playoff team, and they are 4-1 ATS for the season. Even though they need to keep winning big the rest of the way, this number is just too much. I think Malzahn will come up with some ways to move the ball against the Bearcats, and with a solid ground game they will just eat up too much clock. The game will never be in doubt, but it might look semi-close on paper.
