The first race on the July 1st 2018 card at Belmont Park is not the most exciting race. Claiming races rarely are.
Today, however, there might be a play considering a few key facts on the race.
PAULA’S PISTOL, number 2, will likely start as the overwhelming favourite, being listed as the 1-1 Morning Line odds. Her profile for this particular race is impressive but there are some blemishes on her resume…
Could that open the door for the horse right on her outside, number 3 DARIA’S ANGEL, to repeat her winning performance of just over a week ago?
The rest of this short field looks relatively harmless but SPECIAL RISK on the rail could surprise.
I believe that it will be a showdown between PAULA’S PISTOL and DARIA’S ANGEL though and depending on how the odds progress on the pari-mutuel, I think there will be a good betting opportunity here today
In the 3rd race of Belmont Park on July 1 2018, the field notes are as follow:
Number 1, SPECIAL RISK has not won a race this year and her only 2 successes in a career of 25 have come on other tracks and other distances. She won two races late last year in short order but has not repeated the feat in 7 races since. The key feature for her today is her relatively good speed and considering that her last try was on a Sprint, maybe she will come out sharp and be a factor early. I don’t see her winning this race though.
Number 2 PAULA’S PISTOL is sure to attract a lot of betting and there is indeed a lot to like in the 4 years old filly. She has won at the class level at Belmont Park in her last try and earned a speed figure that should be enough to repeat. Her place in the previous start earned her an even better figure so there is little doubt that she is at the right class category today. Her speed profile might be the challenge today as PAULA’S PISTOL will get some competition for the lead from the inside. Also worth considering, she has been stopped two months and comes back with decent workouts showing but nothing to be crazy about. At this class level, the racing opportunities are endless so a long pause like that must mean something was off with her. PAULA’S PISTOL might start as an odds-on favourite and considering the doubts about pace and condition, I think that she is a bet against today.
Number 3, DARIA’S ANGEL comes off a win at Belmont Park on just a slightly shorter distance and at about the same class level. Her trainer tried her many times at the Allowance level and higher claimers but she did not perform well in those. The win at a more reasonable class level is a great sign for today though and it looks like she knows how to wait and press the pace. Her trainer is pretty savvy and repeats winning performance about 30% of the time when racing after a relatively short rest. DARIA’S ANGEL will likely not start at very high odds so betting is a leap of faith but I think that the favourite will draw a lot of the money and that the odds on DARIA’S ANGEL will make her an interesting bet in this short field
Number 4, STARS WILBURN broke her maiden last year at a very low class and since then has failed to repeat in the claimers category. With only a third place to show in 2018 and low speed figures all around. It is pretty unlikely that this is the day where STARS WILBURN reveals that she is a star indeed. She has shown some speed in some races so maybe she will spoil the pace but I think that it is a safe pass on the filly today…
Number 5 FORRES LILY has won by a nose in New York in the spring but the speed figure she earned then is like the rest of her career, unimpressive. She is running in the same class category as usual and she has not managed to win (or place) much in the previous tries. She has some speed at times so maybe, like her post position neighbour, she can be a factor early but it is very unlikely that she finishes on top today.
Number 6, PREZIOSA did not have the best career so far but one can point to the fact that her best successes came at Belmont Park and at this distance. She has no win in her last 10 starts, has been rested for 3 months, and the workouts are unimpressive. Her career speed figures are pretty bad too so if she does win this race she might be the longshot of the year in New York.
CONCLUSION
This is a short field and basically a two horses race in by book.
PAULA’S PISTOL has a great profile on paper and she is sure to get bet heavily at Belmont Park on July 1st. She definitely has a strong chance but the dark spots on paper make me believe that the horse on her outside is the right bet today.
DARIA’S ANGEL has a less flashy profile but her talent might be obscured by the fact that she was run at much higher class races in her career so far. DARIA’S ANGEL’s last race was at this category and she won that in hand. I am betting that she will repeat today at relatively interesting odds.
JULY 1 BELMONT PARK RACE 1 BETTING ADVICE
WIN BET at 3-2 or more on Number 3 DARIA’S ANGEL