Another short field at Belmont Park in a Claimer Sprint but a pretty well-matched group so the betting should be interesting.
The race comes down to the pace scenario, as it often does, and Post Positions might play a role.
The morning line odds favorite PICTURE DAY comes down in class, after a layoff of a month and a half, and posts a couple of speed figure in his career that would make it easy to win today if repeated. His come from behind style is not an advantage in this Belmont Park sprint however so a speedier horses like DARING PROSPECT might enjoy the track bias and upset at interesting odds.
In the 2nd race of Belmont Park on July 1 2018, the field notes are as follow:
Number 1, MY WON LOVE comes back down to claiming after a couple of tries at higher class races, including a win in a cheap stake at Aqueduct on the other side of New York. MY WON LOVE has been given a long rest following a 4th place in an Optional Claimer here at Belmont Park and the workouts are not particularly impressive since. With 2 wins in 7 tries at the distance and an overall decent record at Belmont Park, MY WON LOVE has a chance. His lifetime speed figures are not so great and he has only brushed the track par for the class on one occasion. His favourite style of coming from behind does not pay off often at the sprint distance and with no other interesting factors, I don’t think that MY WON LOVE has much chances. At least I don’t like them at the 5-2 morning odds…
Number 2 PICTURE DAY is the morning line odds favourite and comes down from higher class levels after decent showings up there. He has a few speed figures at the Aqueduct track that would allow him to win easily today but the last race was a bit of a let-down after coming close a bunch of time before. PICTURE DAY was given a bit of a rest and shows two poor workouts since the last race. The fact that he never won at Belmont Park and his not a killer at this distance makes me doubt that he deserves to be our favorite today. The come from behind style is not a plus at the 6 furlongs track and there is not a ton of speed in front to make his day easier today. I think that PICTURE DAY will come short and will attract a lot of amateur money which in turn will make betting on others more interesting.
Number 3, ARCHUMY BABY cuts back in distance and it is not certain that it is a good strategy considering that she failed at her only try at 6 furlongs. She also failed a few times at Belmont Park. The speed figures that she claimed in his career would not be enough to win here so this seems like a big ask to finally win at the distance and show a good time… ARCHUMBABY should not have enough speed to challenge early so I believe that she will just be no factor today.
Number 4, SATIN SHEETS comes off two wins and a close one before that in an allowance race so there is probably some quality in this filly. But today she takes on the boys and it is a step up in class from the last start. She needs to step up on the speed figures too to have a chance today so it looks like the win might be difficult. She has decent pace however so maybe will be a factor early but I have my doubts for the win and hope that a few amateurs will be attracted by the win record recently and overbet her. But at the morning line odds of 3-1 I don’t think that SATIN SHEETS would be a good bet at all.
Number 5 STAY FOND posted a couple good wins early in the year at lower claiming class and tried her luck at higher levels of the New York circuit since then. She ran almost only route races so it looks like she is more of an endurance horse. One can wonder why she tries the sprint today? Her trainer does not have a very good track record, to say the least, but she does come back down in class so maybe she has what it takes? A few of her past speed figures would make her competitive but she takes on the boys today and picks a sprint for only the second time in her career. I don’t think that she is in a good spot and believe we can safely pass.
Number 6, DARING PROSPECT is the only pure speed horse here today and starts from the outside which is great news for pace handicappers. The Belmont Park sprint course tends to favour outside speedy horses and with little competition for the lead, DARING PROSPECT is in a prime position. She failed in her last route from the rail but posted a good Beyer for this field and the last three speed figures are competitive. She has winning experience on slightly longer and shorter distances so I believe that she has a good chance today and the morning line odds of 4-1 are very good to take.
CONCLUSION
It is a pretty competitive bunch but multiple horses have pace profiles or class profiles that raise doubts on their chances today.
The likely favorite PICTURE DAY might not be at his sharpest and he never showed much at the distance. SATIN SHEETS is likely to be the public second choice and attract money because of the two wins in a row but she steps up in class and needs to show much improved performances to have a shot here.
I think that the Belmont Park track bias will help DARING PROSPECT, the only real speed in the race starting from the outside.
DARING PROSPECT has competitive speed and pace figures and won at distances close to today’s so he should have a very good chance today. At the morning line odds of 4-1 he would be a great bet and I am willing to take him shorter too.
JULY 1 BELMONT PARK RACE 2 BETTING ADVICE
WIN BET at 5-2 or more on Number 6 DARING PROSPECT