The 7th race is the second Graded Stakes on the card, this time the Grade 2, 7 furlongs, Belmont Sprint.
We should be seeing some sparks early in the race with multiple early speed horse likely to go at it hard in the early stages.
We have multiple graded stakes winners in this race so a lot of it will come down to the pace scenario, which might favour come from behind horses like LIMOUSINE LIBERAL or WHITMORE.
The second leg of the Belmont Park Pick 6 should be an interesting contest with a small but well-matched field.
In the 7th race of Belmont Park on July 7 2018, the field notes are as follow:
Number 1, LIMOUSINE LIBERAL comes down a class notch after placing 3rd in a Belmont Park Grade 1 a month ago. He won before that in a Grade 2 at this same distance but the race was on sloppy grounds which is apparently its preferred footing. LIMOUSINE LIBERAL seems to have the class to perform today, having won at the level and having performed decently at the upper class Grade 1. The distance should be perfectly suited for him and the fast early pace will surely be a plus for him considering his come from behind style. The speed figures recently are decent, albeit a bit under par. All things considered though, LIMOUSINE LIBERAL looks like a very strong contender today but the odds are very likely to be depressingly low…
Number 2 WHITMORE is another come from behind horse likely to be favored by the fast early pace which we should see unfold. WHITMORE is a proven winner at the level and has beaten LIMOUSINE LIBERAL in the past, though of course LL has also beaten him the last time they met. WHITMORE might have been unlucky in the contest though and he also just missed the win last month but posted a good speed figure. The recent sharp maintenance workout says that he might have kept well. A darker point is that WHITMORE has never won at the distance and might prefer shorter but he has the late speed advantage and for me it will come down to the odds between him and LIMOUSINE LIBERAL on his inside. These two seem evenly matched to me so I will take the higher price.
Number 3, EYE LUV LULU is one of the many speed horses who should be tearing the Belmont Park track up in the early goings. EYE LUV LULU steps up in class straight from the ungraded stakes to a Grade 2 so that’s a big jump. He also has not raced for over 2 months and does not post sharp workouts recently. Most often, that older gelding needs a race to come back in shape after a layoff and the last time out best career speed figure might have taken a toll on the 7 years old… EYE LUV LULU will most definitely be amongst the leading pack in the early going but I don’t expect him to come close to the winner circle today.
Number 4, SHAFT OF LIGHT is also another older gelding taking a step up and likely to post very fast fractions in the early goings. He came close last time out in a Grade 3 and it looks like he kept sharp as he posts three bullet workouts since. SHAFT OF LIGHT seems to be hot and has a great record at the distance, but he is stepping up against better opposition and, with others battling him for the lead, it is not likely that he wins this one.
Number 5 LEWISFIELD makes me sound like a parrot because his profile is very close to his two inside neighbours in this race… LEWISFIELD is a speed horse taking a step up but even though he has a better chance than the older geldings in the race, LEWISFIELD is still outmatched here. He has not won at the Grade 3 level so claiming a Grade 2 win is unlikely. He has lost his last two races and without posting very strong speed figures. He has early speed and should be part of the early battle and making the pace hotter, but it is pretty unlikely that he can maintain the pace long enough to best the classier horses at the finish line…
Number 6, FAVORABLE OUTCOME won a Grade 2 and placed in a Grade 1 last year and does have one of the best career speed figure record in the field. He has been known to press the pace and stay close to the action to pounce at the end, but he does not have such a great track record overall and seems a bit outclassed here. He has been rested for almost two months and he has won fresh in the past, so the very sharp workouts last month are probably a good sign. He has not won this year and failed last time out, a few class notches below today’s race. So I definitely prefer the chances of others, but FAVORABLE OUTCOME might be able to grab a place.
We can expect a blistering hot pace which should open the door for a come from behind win by one of three horses, LIMOUSINE LIBERAL, WHITMORE or FAVORABLE OUTCOME.
Favorable OUTCOME is the weakest of the three in my opinion so I would not consider him for a win but a place is definitely achievable.
LIMOUSINE LIBERAL is probably marginally better than WHITMORE but I think it is too close to call and I expect WHITMORE to have more attractive odds at the betting window.
It will come down to the price for me…
JULY 7 BELMONT PARK RACE 7 BETTING ADVICE
WIN BET at 2-1 or more on Number 1 LIMOUSINE LIBERAL
WIN BET at 2-1 or more on Number 2 WHITMORE
Exacta Box 1-2