In the biggest race of the day at Belmont Park, the Grade II Mother Goose stakes race, we have what is going to be an interesting scenario playing up between a few high-quality fillies.
The morning line favorite (8-5) MIDNIGHT BISOU comes in with the best speed figures of the field, a good post position, and a come-from-behind pace profile which might be an advantage facing hot pacesetters on his outside.
Will the pace of the race burn out the speedy and unbeaten ROAD TO VICTORY?
Can MIDNIGHT BISOU overcome all obstacles to claim victory in a Belmont Park route race which typically favours speed?
One thing is certain, the biggest race of the day at Belmont Park should also be the most exciting
In the 8th race of Belmont Park on June 30 2018, the field notes are as follow:
Number 1 INDY UNION is given morning line odds of 20-1 by the racetrack handicapper and that sounds even generous to me. INDY UNION has never won in a Graded Stake and her third place in the Black Eye Susan Grade 2 race a bit over a month ago is not going to impress many. Also unlikely to impress? Her mid-seventies Beyer Speed figures going against fillies who have topped in the 90-95 range… INDY UNION tends to wake up in the stretch and that could be an advantage today for a place but in the come from behind game, I don’t see her beating MIDNIGHT BISOU…
Number 2 MIDNIGHT BISOU has earned the best average and top speed figures in the field in her last three races and the pace scenario is likely to favour her unless the Belmont Park track bias is too strong today. Going wide in the Grade I Kentucky Oaks a bit over a month ago, MIDNIGHT BISOU claimed the third place. This came after three straight impressive wins in Graded Stakes company so today’s class should be no problem for MIDNIGHT BISOU. The only question for her will be on the pace as she needs ROAD TO VICTORY and the other speed horses to set a hot pace and burn out…
Number 3 MO SMART is unbeaten at lower classes in her two starts but today she will likely meet her match. Her blowout wins so far might mean that she is capable of better speed figures than she has earned if she needs to exert herself. However the jump from high seventies to mid-nineties might be a bit large… One cannot rule out a surprise but with strong opposition today I would not accept the morning line odds of 8-1 on MO SMART. Give me a 15 to 1 and I might reconsider…
Number 4, GIO GAME might have the early speed to claim the rail and, at a Belmont Park track that tends to have a bias to speed horses on the rail for the 1 and 1/16 mile races , GIO GAME might have a good position to win. But she will need to fend off the other speed horses on her outside AND fend off MIDNIGHT BISOU in the stretch. That looks like a tall order for a filly who has never won a Graded Stake race, even though her speed figures are not bad at the lower class levels. Of course, if the odds skyrocket and she becomes a 20-1 longshot, why not? But the racetrack handicapper lists her with a 6-1 morning line odds and that’s way too short a price to take in my opinion…
Number 5, COACH ROCKS has an interesting profile because of her versatility. She has won in Graded Stakes company and has won going for the lead or coming from behind. Add some hot workouts and being unbeaten at the distance and you start liking her chances. Until you remember that she is facing some good fillies today and she lost her last two starts.. Horse racing is a numbers game though and COACH ROCKS is probably a good bet at odds of 10-1 or more.
Number 6, ROAD TO VICTORY brings her unbeaten record to Belmont Park with a shiny bullet workout last week and a very solid speed figure in her only dirt start lifetime. A Graded Stakes winner, ROAD TO VICTORY should be MIDNIGHT BISOU most formidable foe today but it is doubtful that she can remain unbeaten forever and that road might come to an end at Belmont Park. With only one start on dirt, and that race run at 2 years old, one can wonder if she has the right profile for the dirt or should stick to turf? One should also wonder if, on the other hand, her trainer is a genius who has found an angle in bringing back a filly on an easier turf sprint before running her on the dirt track… This trick has worked 60% of the time in the Graded Stakes class for Mark Casse… At 5-2 morning line odds the price is a bit short to follow the angle but keep an eye out for higher odds…
Number 7, MY MISS LILLY does have a win in a Graded Stakes Route in her bag. In that race she earned a rather impressive Speed Figure. A repeat of the performance could be enough for another win today. In her last race, however, she finished a paltry 11th without showing much at all. Can she rebound today? Her workout regimen since then is pretty good and she has good early speed. But the outside post position will make it difficult to get the rail without burning out I think… MY MISS LILLY will be a pace factor but that will probably be all. At odds of around 5-1, I don’t like the price quality ratio here.
CONCLUSION
MIDNIGHT BISOU will not necessarily have an easy race but it looks like she is the better horse and that the pace scenario is going to favor her. COACH ROCKS could surprise and ROAD TO VICTORY’s odds might drift higher if the betting public does not become aware of the angle that her trainer might be trying to work out.
JUNE 30 BELMONT PARK RACE 8 BETTING ADVICE:
Number 2 to win if odds of 3-2 or better
OR Number 5 to win at odds at 10-1 or better
OR Number 6 if offs are 4-1 or better
Exacta 2-5 straight
Trifecta straight 2-5-6 and 2-6-5