Here is a look at our Daily Fantasy Sports – Major League Baseball Lineup Tips for July 6, 2018:
Pitchers
Chris Sale has been dominant in his last 2 starts and now he faces a Kansas City Royals team that is not scary at all. The Royals do not strike out at a high rate, which would limit his upside in theory, but we all know that Chris Sale can strike out anyone at any time. You can play Chris Sale in all formats, but the price IS prohibitive. I would suggest using him in cash and maybe some GPP lineups, but I think I have cheaper options that I really like tonight that allow me to spend up on bats.
Jacob DeGrom is a great tournament play on a slate with Chris Sale as the clear top option. When you are building your GPP lineups with Chris Sale and run out of money, which will happen, I think pivoting to DeGrom is just fine. Tampa has been a pesky offense especially against elite pitching this year, but expect DeGrom to more than hold his own in this matchup.
Lance McCullers has wipeout stuff that can fool any team, especially a team like the White Sox. McCullers is rather close to guys like Sale and DeGrom, which should keep his ownership down. I don’t love McCullers tonight, but he’s a big discount of guys that he rivals in terms of upside.
Dylan Bundy is a low-owned option in a tier that I don’t think will be targeted much tonight. Bunday has been good most of the year and has made massive improvements from last season. Bundy has flashed rather consistent 25-30 DK point performances which cold rival the guys at the top for much less salary. The Twins are not a bad offense, but a good pitcher can maneuver through the few landmines they do have at the top of the lineup.
Zack Godley has been all over the place this year and is now in a very intriguing spot coming off one of his worst performances to face the Padres. On a slate this big, I think Godley will be owned to some degree, but not nearly as high as he would have if he threw 6 no-hit innings last start. I don’t mind picking on the Padres with Godley and using him as a lower priced SP1 in tournaments tonight.
Sonny Gray has been all over the place this year, but he finds himself in a great spot tonight against the Blue Jays and he is my favorite PP$ pitcher on the night. Gray is MUCHHHHH better with Romine behind the plate, which he should be with Gary Sanchez sidelined. He faces a team that struggles mightily against sliders, which is Gray’s best pitch and that is really a big deal for someone like Gray. He seems to lack confidence and when he gets rolling he has a good, long start. The game logs tell a similar story. I expect Gray to get about a K/inning and cruise tonight with little problems.
Felix Hernandez has recently changed himself as a pitcher. He has increased and decreased his usage on certain pitches and increase movement on his slider. Now, I don’t think Felix is some world beater now, but he has been solid since making this change in his start on June 14th. Felix now gets a great ballpark against the Rockies coming off of a series in Coors Field. The Rockies lineup is scary, but a lot of the intimidation in the numbers comes from their home ballpark. The Rockies have a tendency to struggle on the road and I think new, old King Felix can find his way to a quality start tonight.
Lance Lynn just got absolutely SHELLED (in a Wrigley wind game). Hopefully, that takes the ownership away from one of my favorite pitchers on the night. Lance Lynn is a fastball pitcher, similar in style to what Bartolo Colon does. Lynn gets a lot of movement on this pitch that is very difficult to hit for right-handed batters. He faces Baltimore tonight, which consists of a bunch of righties and Chris Davis, who might as well walk up to the plate without a bat at all. Lynn struggled early this year, as did every other free agent who wasn’t signed until just before opening day. These guys didn’t get the reps against major league hitters to sharpen up and it killed them. Lynn seems more like 2017 Lance Lynn and in that case, I love him here. Last year, Lynn would’ve been a solid cash game option in this spot at $2,000 on both sites. I think you can play Lynn in all formats and yes, Lynn/Gray may be my most owned build tonight.
Stacks
Paul Blackburn just threw a gem against the Indians, which I actually warned about before it happened. Cleveland was in a great spot but they were away from home. Now, they’re at home, facing a bad pitcher they just struggled against a week ago. SIGN ME UP! I plan on saving money tonight to play stacks like this one in GPP’s and I kind of hope not many others join me.
In his last 3 starts, Jason Hammel has allowed 25 hits and 16 runs. Now, he faces the Red Sox in Fenway. Good luck. The Red Sox are another expensive stack that no one else can afford while playing the top pitching options. This is the EXACT leverage you want in large field tournaments. I can make stacks of the Red Sox, Indians, Astros, Yankees, Nationals with two pitching options I think are actually really good. This is the plan of attack today.
The Astros face a talented, young pitcher in Reynaldo Lopez tonight. Lopez has struggled a little more recently and the regression is incoming. His xFIP is almost 2 points higher than his ERA and there is no better time for regression than at Houston. Houston is probably my fourth favorite high priced stack today, but I will still have a bunch of combinations of these players within my lineups tonight.
The Yankees face a pretty solid pitcher in Sam Gaviglio, who actually has thrown a solid game against the Yankees early in the year. In that start, Gaviglio only struck out 4 in 7 innings with a SwStr% of just 7.7%. That is a massive red flag. Gaviglio survived against the Yankees last time, he didn’t dominate. You HAVE to keep them from hitting the ball to feel comfortable against their power and Gaviglio couldn’t do that in his first start, nevermind his second. I think this performance may talk people off of the Yankees stack, but after looking at the advanced numbers, that start actually made me bump up the Yankees.
Secondary Stacks: Nationals, Mariners, and Cardinals
If you want to pay up tonight, you will need cheap bats. Here is a list of my favorite cheaper stacks in tournaments tonight. These are not great plays, but they are the cheap teams that may have the upside to compete against a top stack. This may mean targeting a good pitcher or a scary situation