The Derby Trail is already heating up. This weekend Fair Grounds will run one of its marquee events in the Lecomte. The runners will be awarded 10,4,2, and 1 points respectively for a top four finish.
Lecomte Analysis
The Fair Grounds Race 14
Post: 6:20 PM CT; Purse: $200,000 Lecomte S., 1 1/16 Miles on Dirt; Entries: 9
The Lecomte Stakes will go off as the final race of the day. It will award 10 points to the winner. While this will hardly be enough to qualify, this is a huge prep race for future Derby preps on the Louisiana circuit.
#3 PAPPACAP (8-5) has a great shot in the race given the speed & class. #5 EPICENTER (9-5) should enjoy the extra distance of this race. #6 CYBERKNIFE (6-1) has to be respected based on the connections. #4 TRAFALGAR (5-1) is worth a look here given edges in record at the distance & pace numbers.
Saturday Full Card Analysis
The Fair Grounds Race 1
Post: 12:00 PM CT; Purse: $58,000 Maiden Special Weight, 6 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 11
#9 GRACELEADSUSHOME (8-1) has a chance to upset this group based on the lineage. #2 HOUSE OF ZONG (20-1) will be forward early and that’s never a bad place to be in short dirt races. #7 CANDY'S PRIDE (3-1) should be competitive today based on the horse's speed & class. #6 PINEAPPLE ALLEY (7-2) could get a perfect pace scenario today.
Selections: 9-2-7-6
The Fair Grounds Race 2
Post: 12:30 PM CT; Purse: $58,000 Maiden Special Weight, 1 1/16 Miles on Dirt; Entries: 8
#4 ART HEIST (7-2) should be competitive today based on the horse's speed & form. #1 GUNFIGHTER (5-1) has a chance to pull the minor upset here. #8 ONE MORE BABY (6-1) looks to have to have kept the best company in the previous starts. #2 HALFMOON (8-1) is the right price for some underneath plays.
Selections: 4-1-8-2
The Fair Grounds Race 3
Post: 1:00 PM CT; Purse: $58,000 Allowance Optional Claiming, 1 1/16 Miles on Dirt; Entries: 7
#4 STELLAR TAP (3-1) is worth a look here given edges in form & power rating. #3 PIONEER OF MEDINA (9-2) is with a great chance based on the horse's stamina & pace numbers. #7 KEVIN'S FOLLY (9-2) is worth a look here given edges in class & race flow. #5 UNDERHILL'S TAB (5-2 merits consideration in this spot given edges in speed & record at the distance.
Selections: 4-3-7-5
The Fair Grounds Race 4
Post: 1:29 PM CT; Purse: $58,000 Allowance, 1 1/8 Miles on Turf; Entries: 14
#1 WIN WORTHY (6-1) is competitive in a bunch of metrics that may just put this one into the winner’s circle. #7 WING COMMANDER (12-1) is worth a look here given edges in class & race flow. The price is right. #2B PICKING ROSES (4-1) is with a great chance based on the horse's connections & power rating. #10 REIGNING SPIRIT (5-1) comes into the race signaling a big performance in the near future.
Selections: 1-7-2B-10
The Fair Grounds Race 5
Post: 1:58 PM CT; Purse: $58,000 Maiden Special Weight, 1 1/16 Miles on Dirt; Entries: 9
#8 ICE BLAST (8-1) could pull a big upset in this field. I love the price against non-winners. #2 CRYPTIC CODE (15-1) should be in the right spot early to give this horse a chance to get the job done. #5 ALMANZO (7-2) is with a great chance based on the horse's record at the distance and the bloodlines. #3 PEACEFUL WATERS (5-2) merits consideration in this spot given edges in speed & form.
Selections: 8-2-5-3
The Fair Grounds Race 6
Post: 2:27 PM CT; Purse: $58,000 Maiden Special Weight, 1 Mile on Turf; Entries: 14
#5 CO CONSPIRATOR (8-1) is a price horse that I like in this spot. #13 HOGSLAYERS R I P (8-1) should be in the right spot early to give this horse a chance to get the job done. #14 MORE THAN WORK (4-1) is a major player based on speed figures. #1 AFTERNOON ANEJO (8-1) has to be respected based on the connections. I’m totally against the top of the board in this spot.
Selections: 5-13-14-1
The Fair Grounds Race 7
Post: 2:56 PM CT; Purse: $58,000 Maiden Special Weight, 6 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 12
#2 RATHER BE LUCKY (8-1) is yet another 8-1 in a maiden special weight that could spring an upset. #5 NON VIOLENCE (9-2) should be in the right spot early to give this horse a chance to get the job done. #9 MERCY WARREN (10-1) wouldn't be a huge surprise in the winner's circle. #7 BLACK CHEETAH (30-1) would be a bomb in the vertical exotics.
In these races, pay attention to which horses are taking money. That can often be a bigger signal than any other metric.
Selections: 2-5-9-7
The Fair Grounds Race 8
Post: 3:25 PM CT; Purse: $100,000 Duncan F. Kenner S., 5 1/2 Furlongs on Turf; Entries: 8
#5 JUST MIGHT (8-5) is a major player in today's race edging the field in several key handicapping factors including speed & form. #1 SIR ALFRED JAMES (5-1) makes sense based on the power rating. #3 CLASSY JOHN (15-1) is a major player based on speed figures. #2 COWAN (8-1) is likely an underneath play, but isn’t totally discounted from finding the winner’s circle.
Selections: 5-1-3-2
The Fair Grounds Race 9
Post: 3:54 PM CT; Purse: $50,000 Maiden Special Weight, 6 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 14
#3 VINCO (12-1) should be competitive based on the breeding which has it tops in the group. #1 STRONG QUALITY (5-1) could be a fringe contender here. #13 ZOZOS (6-1) should be in the right spot early to give this horse a chance to get the job done. #14 STAYED IN FOR HALF (8-1) will have to overcome the outside post, but makes a little sense if it can.
Selections: 3-1-13-14
The Fair Grounds Race 10
Post: 4:23 PM CT; Purse: $100,000 Marie G. Krantz Memorial S., 1 1/16 Miles on Turf; Entries: 12
#8 JANELLE MONAE (8-1) has to be respected based on the connections. #5 SUMMER IN SARATOGA (7-2) merits consideration in this spot given edges in speed & power rating. #2 CATCH A BID (8-1) will likely have the stamina to outlast these in the final jumps of the race. #1 ABSCOND (3-1) looks to have to have kept the best company in the previous starts.
Selections: 8-5-2-1
The Fair Grounds Race 11
Post: 4:52 PM CT; Purse: $150,000 Silverbulletday S., 1 Mile 70 Yards on Dirt; Entries: 6
#5 LA CRETE (2-1) has a great shot in the race given the connections & pace numbers. #4 SWEET AS PIE (5-2) is a major player in today's race edging the field in several key handicapping factors including speed & power rating. #1 FANNIE AND FREDDIE (5-2) is a major player based on speed figures. #6 CANDY RAID (15-1) could factor at a massive price.
Selections: 5-4-1-6
The Fair Grounds Race 12
Post: 5:20 PM CT; Purse: $100,000 Colonel E. R. Bradley S., 1 1/16 Miles on Turf; Entries: 12
#1 LOGICAL MYTH (12-1) has to be respected based on the connections. #6 TWO EMMYS (3-1) has a great shot in the race given the speed & class. #2 HALO AGAIN (6-1) should be in the right spot early to give this horse a chance to get the job done. #9 BODECREAM (8-1) has been productive thus far and although this one would need to step up here, it wouldn’t be a total surprise.
Selections: 1-6-2-9
The Fair Grounds Race 13
Post: 5:49 PM CT; Purse: $150,000 Louisiana S., 1 1/16 Miles on Dirt; Entries: 7
#3 MIDNIGHT BOURBON (6-5) is a major player in today's race edging the field in several key handicapping factors including speed & power rating. #2 MANDALOUN (1-1) merits consideration in this spot given edges in stamina & record at the distance. #4 SPRAWL (10-1) could get a perfect pace scenario today. #6 WARRANT (12-1) should be in the right spot early to give this horse a chance to get the job done.
Selections: 3-2-4-6 (Best Bet #3 MIDNIGHT BOURBON)
The Fair Grounds Race 14
Post: 6:20 PM CT; Purse: $200,000 Lecomte S., 1 1/16 Miles on Dirt; Entries: 9
Stakes analysis provided above.
Selections: 3-5-6-4
Continued Derby Coverage
As the Derby trail continues to heat up through the winter months, Betting News offers free analysis and handicapping tools to make spring of 2022 a profitable one.
