The 12th race is a Grade II stakes for fillies and mares and appears to be a very competitive field. This makes for interesting bets, especially if you are willing to risk some of your bankroll at higher odds.
The Gulfstream Park track handicapper allocates very, very, low morning line odds to the favorite CURLIN’S APPROVAL who does appear to have an interesting pace situation unfolding for her as well as solid speed figures, both recently and lifetime.
The pace scenario is not has hot as in other races of the day but we can still expect some early fireworks from MS LOCUST POINT, RICH MOMMY and a few others. The 7 furlong course here tends to favour speed horses from the outside post positions but today these horses do not seem to have the class for the race.
A longshot like STORMY EMBRACE might be able to come and steal the show in the last strides or at least claim a podium to make the exotics pay out nicely.
Regardless of the outcome, this good field should give us a competitive and exciting race.
In the 12th race of Gulfstream Park on June 30 2018, the field notes are as follow:
Number 1, CURLIN’S APPROVAL comes in from a stakes win after decent showings (including two places) in Graded Stakes company so she is not out of place in this G2. The two excellent workouts indicate that she might have kept sharp since the win. When racing at the 7 furlongs course of Gulfstream Park, CURLIN’S APPROVAL strikes 45% of the time so there is definitely a lot to like in her. She has been known to try for the lead but has had more success pressing the pace and today she might be able to do just that. The morning line favorite odds of 6-5 seem a bit short against a very good field today though…
Number 2 MS LOCUST POINT is a G2 winner this year and as a pure speed horse, she has the right profile for the Gulfstream Park 7 furlongs track but the inside Post Position is not great news. She has lost previously here and failed in her last outing and claimed 3rd following a heated pace race. To win today, she probably would need an easy lead as she got in her G2 win at Laurel. It is not impossible but there is a bit of speed on her outside and those girls might make her day difficult.
Number 3, MY MISS TAPIT has never failed at Gulfstream Park and at this distance. Her only two outings in Graded Stakes company up North were failures however. But maybe you can put that to the change of scenery and increased distance in these races? She has a few hot workouts and comes off a win in lower class that earned her the best Speed figure of the field. Her come from behind style is going to be an advantage if the pace is white hot but that’s no given. She runs for Todd Pletcher and the pairing with her jockey strikes about 30% of the time. I am not sure that she has the class to win that one though and the G2 might be a big jump despite the unbeaten record at Gulfstream Park. The morning line odds of 4-1 are short in my opinion and I would need about double to take a chance on the big class jump.
Number 4, RICH MOMMY has a decent record at Gulfstream Park but never won at the distance or at this class level either. With no wins in her 2018 column, it does not look like she is particularly sharp… she is a sprinter by trade though and has been vying for the lead at these distances so she might be a factor early in the race to make it difficult for her speedy opponents. I don’t think she has the class to go all the way in this company and it will be a pass from me today…
Number 5 SHE TAKES HEART has very sharp workouts this month so she might be raring to go but it is a tall order for the mare. She is taking a big step up in class and her speed profile means that she will go up against better horses early in the race… I think she might put a bit of pressure but should not be seen near the podium today….
Number 6, TREBLE makes the trip from Kentucky for this event so we can be sure there is some trainer intent here. Her speed figures are not out of place but it is a big step up in class for a horse who has never won a Graded Stakes or even won at the distance. The come from behind style should be of help today though, if only to grab a place on the podium. At longshot odds, TREBLE might not be too bad a choice to spice up your exotics.
Number 7, STORMY EMBRACE, has a very good track record at Gulfstream Park and at the distance. She comes from a Stakes win at a decent speed figure and her figure two races back is second best of the whole field lifetime. STORMY EMBRACE has an hybrid pace profile and can go for the lead or press the pace a few horses back to pounce in the stretch, which might be the right strategy today. She is listed in the morning line odds as a longshot (15-1) and that kinds of attracts my eye. As I don’t think that the favorite or the short odds are unbeatable, I believe that STORMY EMBRACE might be the right pick today.
Number 8, SPANISH HARLEM switches back to the dirt today after a decent showing in a turf stake here at Gulfstream Park. She won the 7 furlongs race prior at lower class and she came from pressing the pace in that one. You can add to the positives the two very sharp workouts and the strong trainer-jockey pairing and the strong angle Turf to Dirt for her trainer. She seems comfortable on the surface but the jump to a G2 today seems a bit high. SPANISH HARLEM might have a say on a deep track and if the pace collapses in front of her. But as longshots go, I prefer others today.
CONCLUSION:
The short morning line odds favorite CURLIN’S APPROVAL faces a stronger opposition than what the Gulfstream Park track handicapper thinks in my opinion. She might be able to press the pace from horses that might not be able to go the distance at this class level so her chances of winning are quite good but I don’t think that the odds will be anywhere to true here. I think that other horses might come and spoil the party at interesting prices and I will probably place a win bet on STORMY EMBRACE at high odds as well as create a few exotics to capitalize on the longshots if the favourite can fend them off.
JUNE 30 GULFSTREAM PARK RACE 3 BETTING ADVICE
WIN BET at 10-1 or better on Number 7 STORMY EMBRACE
Exacta Box 1-5
Exacta Box 1-7
Exacta Box 5-7
Trifecta Box 1-5-7