It will be hard for horseplayers to focus in just one spot this weekend with so many key Breeder’s Cup preps this weekend. However, one of the major stories will be the return of Kentucky Derby winner Medina Spirit. The horse scratched out of last weekend’s Pennsylvania Derby to run here in the Awesome Again at Santa Anita.
Breeder’s Cup Implications at Santa Anita
Santa Anita will host three key Breeder’s Cup prep races. The event will take place on November 5th and 6th at Del Mar Thoroughbred Club. Given modern training tactics, which often utilize 4-6 week rests in between starts, this weekend is often a target for trainers to get in their last race.
The Santa Anita card on Saturday features 3 of the weekend’s 9 Breeder’s Cup “Win and You’re In” races. Between Friday and Sunday Santa Anita will actually host 7 of the 9 Challenge Series races with Belmont Park hosting the other 2.
Baffert Status for Breeder’s Cup in Question
The Breeder’s Cup announced last month that they were launching a full scale review into whether one of horse racing’s most accomplished trainer would be eligible for the Breeder’s Cup.
The review follows a tumultuous year for the trainer who most notably has produced the only 2 Triple Crown winners since Secretariat.
Baffert’s Year In Review
- Baffert’s top tier horses including Life is Good and Concert Tour are ruled out of the Kentucky Derby.
- Medina Spirit wins the Kentucky Derby as a longshot beating favorite Essential Quality
- The day after the Derby Bob Baffert begins a media tour after rumblings come out that Medina Spirit tested positive for illegal amounts of betamethasone. Baffert claims he will get to the bottom of the positive test.
- Pimlico announces that Baffert’s horses will be allowed to run provided they can pass more rigorous drug testing. Both Concert Tour and Medina Spirit run poorly in defeat.
- New York bans Baffert from running at NYRA tracks including Belmont for the Belmont Stakes and the summer meet at Saratoga. Many owners begin switching their horses to other barns.
- A split sample comes back confirming the positive test from the Derby.
- A judge lifts the New York ban pointing out inconsistencies in how other trainers with drug violations have been handled by NYRA. Baffert has only a limited presence in New York.
- Churchill Downs announces that no horse trained by Bob Baffert will be eligible to earn Kentucky Derby or Kentucky Oaks points for two years, effectively disqualifying him from having horses in Churchill’s marquee events.
- The Breeder’s Cup opens their review of Baffert’s eligibility for the 2021 event held at Del Mar Thoroughbred Club where he is one of the top trainers year after year.
- The Derby results are still pending a hearing as of October 2021.
Breeder’s Cup’s Dilemma
One issue facing many of the racing jurisdictions around the country, including the Breeder’s Cup organization, is the prominence of Baffert in the sport.
In many ways horse racing is a niche sport and has been hyper-focused on attracting new fans to the game in an effort to be viable into the future. Baffert is undeniably the most recognizable name in the sport and has produced stars that even non-racing fans know such as American Pharoah and Justify.
The argument could even be made that his runners are largely sustaining California thoroughbred racing. Taking a hard stand against him could seriously jeopardize a California racing circuit that is already struggling to fill fields throughout the year.
Inversely, horse racing also has its issues from a public perception as well and allowing Baffert to run can make it look as though the sport isn’t that interested in equine safety and gambling integrity.
A decision on Baffert’s inclusion in the 2021 Breeder’s Cup will need to be made relatively soon as pre-entries will close near the end of October.
Santa Anita Saturday Analysis
Race 1
Post: 12:30 PM PT; Purse: $61,000 Maiden Special Weight, 5 Furlongs on Turf; Entries: 14
#7 KEYCHAIN GIRL has experience and has speed figures at class that make her a player. #8 SO SOFTLY is at odds of 12-1 and is one of two big prices I like in this spot. #2 TOM'S BEAUTY will look to get the right set up to pull the minor upset here for Jeff Mullins. #11 AYELLOWROSEOFTEXAS will need help to even get in but Prat and Miller at 15-1 is worth every penny.
Selections: 7-8-2-11
Race 2
Post: 1:00 PM PT; Purse: $35,000 Maiden Claiming, 1 Mile on Dirt; Entries: 5
#4 VELVET GHOST is the 2nd choice on the morning line and makes sense on speed figures, but I’m admittedly leery of favorites in maiden claiming races. #3 ARTHUR SPOONER is favored and has been close at the distance before. While I think the top two on the morning line are the likeliest winners, I will likely play heavily through #5 TEX HANLEY and #2 CHRIS FIX both at 5-1 and offering far better value in this spot.
Selections: 4-3-5-2
Race 3
Post: 1:28 PM PT; Purse: $200,000 City of Hope Mile S., 1 Mile on Turf; Entries: 5
#2 MO FORZA is the rightful favorite and has been really good on the turf. #3 HIT THE ROAD and #5 SMOOTH LIKE STRAIT both have top turf jockeys and have been racing against top quality turfers. #4 ORDER AND LAW is at odds of 8-1 for Mike Maker who has to be respected on turf.
Selections: 2-3-5-4
Race 4
Post: 2:01 PM PT; Purse: $61,000 Maiden Special Weight, 6 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 7
The final Santa Anita maiden race features #1 BIG NOVEL is a 2-1 favorite and makes sense based on speed figures. #2 BOLD CHOICE is well bred and a definite player as well. #3 CAUSE SHE'S A LADY sits a nice price at 10-1 and could be ready to run a big one. #7 KISS MY KAT is at odds of 5-1 gets Abel Cedillo in the irons.
Selections: 1-2-3-7
Race 5
Post: 2:34 PM PT; Purse: $65,000 Allowance Optional Claiming, About 6 1/2 Furlongs on Downhill turf; Entries: 8
Santa Anita will run one of two downhill races here. #2 COMMANDER is at odds of 7-2 and combines top class with good form. #1 WHOOPING JAY is another with a good chance based on a number of handicapping factors. #6 PERFECTIONISTIC is at odds of 10-1 and has done little wrong of late. #4 THANKS MR. EIDSON is at odds of 6-1 and may get the best of the race flow.
Selections: 2-1-6-4
Race 6
Post: 3:04 PM PT; Purse: $65,000 Allowance Optional Claiming, 1 1/16 Miles on Dirt; Entries: 5
#3 EIGHT RINGS is a standout here in a number of key factors and looks tough to beat. #1 TAISHAN has speed figures to be competitive here. #4 CLASSIER goes out for the team of Baffert and Smith. #5 PARSIMONY is at odds of 5-1 may have a chance to get into the number.
Selections: 3-1-4-5 (Best Bet: #3)
Race 7
Post: 3:34 PM PT; Purse: $63,000 Allowance Optional Claiming, 1 Mile on Turf; Entries: 14
#5 ONE FAST BRO is at odds of 5-1 and I like him to pull the upset on the Santa Anita turf course. #6 CONSTITUTIONAFFAIR looks like a live longshot at 15-1. #13 FIRST PREMIO will need help to get in but is very dangerous. #2 U. S. DANGER is at odds of 5-1 and hasn’t done anything wrong lately.
Selections: 5-6-13-2
Race 8
Post: 4:06 PM PT; Purse: $200,000 Santa Anita Sprint Championship S., 6 Furlongs on Dirt; Entries: 6
#2 VERTICAL THREAT has the speed figure to be tough here. #5 FLAGSTAFF will look to get the best run of the race. #1 DR. SCHIVEL goes out for top connections. #4 C Z ROCKET is the defending champ and has to be respected.
Selections: 2-5-1-4
Race 9
Post: 4:38 PM PT; Purse: $300,000 Rodeo Drive S., 1 1/4 Miles on Downhill turf; Entries: 9
#4 GOING TO VEGAS is at odds of 5-2 and appears the class of the field. #1 DOGTAG is at odds of 4-1 and could get the right set up. #7 MAGIC ATTITUDE will likely be a pace presence in this spot. #5 RIDEFORTHECAUSE is at odds of 15-1 and could be sitting on a big performance on the downhill turf at Santa Anita.
Selections: 4-1-7-5
Race 10
Post: 5:10 PM PT; Purse: $300,000 Awesome Again S., 1 1/8 Miles on Dirt; Entries: 8
The feature at Santa Anita is a Breeder’s Cup “Win and You’re In” for the Breeder’s Cup Classic. #7 TRIPOLI is in great form right now and could spring the upset. #1 TIZAMAGICIAN has speed figures to suggest this one could be good here. #2 MIDCOURT has a good record at the distance. #3 EXPRESS TRAIN is another interesting one. I am personally against Medina Spirit. The horse has proven he’s up to a fight, but I just have a bad feeling about him here.
Selections: 7-1-2-3
Race 11
Post: 5:42 PM PT; Purse: $200,000 John Henry Turf Championship S., 1 1/4 Miles on Turf; Entries: 13
#4 UNITED looks tough here, but this is a competitive group that has traded blows in previous events. #3 NEPTUNE'S STORM is at odds of 6-1 and a player at a price. #10 RED KING comes in in good form. #6 ACCLIMATE is 9-2 and may get the right set up to get the job done here.
Selections: 4-3-10-6
